Weekly Market Summary

Last trading day: Friday, 30 October

It was a difficult week for our market that continued to be under pressure. (Next week is a truncated one, with Gurunanak Jayanti holiday on Monday). This week, there were no major negative surprises on the corporate results front, nor were they inspiring. Thus the market continued to trade volatile and Sensex fell 900 points this week. Experts feel this month will continue to be choppy and market could move into a lower range. This week's poor figures were: Sensex down 5.3% and Nifty down 5.5%. BSE Midcap index was down 5.7%, BSE Smallcap index down 8.2% over the week.BSE Realty index was down 16%, BSE Metal index down 10%, BSE Bankex index down 8.5%, BSE Oil & Gas index down 6%, BSE Auto index down 2.3% and BSE FMCGindex down 1%.

It was a disappointing, choppy and difficult day of trade that ended weak. Despite average corporate season and decent global cues, our market saw extreme volatility at the start of the November series. Sensex shut shop at 15896, down 156 points and Nifty at 4711, down 38 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.04% and BSE Smallcap index was down 0.77%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 513 against declines of 747 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Sterlite Industries, ICICI Bank and Reliance Capital while losers were RCom, Suzlon and Bharti Airtel.

 In any bull market, there are at least 5-6 corrections and they could even be of 15%. This is a good time to invest even though retail money feels shaken out. Market is expected to make new highs in the long term. Buy Nifty 4860 and long-term target could be 5800,

Investement Idea

SEAMEC

CMP 201/-

SEAMEC - is a MNC outfit of Technip Group of France. Its leader in operating MSVs/DSV in India, with 4 out of 6 vessels belonging to it and balance 2 are with ONGC. There are just about 30-35 MSV's operating in the world. They are specialized vessels used for undertaking any kind of underwater engg, maintenance and developmental works.

The company now has strategy of deploying vessels on long term charters as against in the spot market, therefore the cash flow for the future is better predictable.

All the ships are fully deployed right now and charter rates are also strong, due to strong demand for such vessels. In past due to focus on spot market and also due to some kind of accidents etc, the performance of company was quite erratic and thus valuations of stock suffered too much.

Company's balance sheet is quite robust with Zero debt, huge cash balances and it is also likely to generate almost Rs. 265 cr for year ending Dec.'09. With market Cap of just Rs 680 Crs, this stock with likely [for Dec'09] NAV of Rs 350 per share and EPS of Rs 70; appears dam cheap at Rs 200/-. 

I think by the time annual results for Dec'09 are announced, stock can easily reach 260-280. BUY.

Free Trading Tips

First calls



LARSEN & TOUBRO( LT)
Execution Price Range                                     Stop Loss                             Target
Buy Between Rs 1570 to 1582                       1555                                     1618



HDFC LTD
Execution Price Range                                     Stop Loss                             Target
Buy Between Rs 2670 to 2682                        2655                                    2717


SBIN (STATE BANK OF INDIA)
Execution Price Range                                    Stop Loss                           Target
Buy Between Rs 2200 to 2210                      2186                                    2242

Daily Trading Calls

Dollar

USD/INR Daily



Dollar futures gave up its gains on Thursday after touching multi week high of 47.74 in morning session. Dollar closed at Rs.47.31/usd a fall of 43 paisa from the high as dollar index fell after 5 days of rise to touch 75.79 from high of 76.63 which it touched on Wednesday. However divergence was seen between USDINR and Indian Equity markets as despite fall in currencies, Nifty also fell and closed 75 points down at 4750 levels. Monthly expiry of futures contract was the key reason behind the fall in equity markets as bulls remained under pressure this month. One of the key indicators responsible for reversal in major asset classes was the GDP data of U.S. American quarterly GDP figures surpassed expectations as the world’s largest economy rose by 3.5% against anticipation of 3.2%. Dow Jones rose by 199 points or 2.05% after release of this data with index touching 9962 points. India’s inflation continued to rise with WPI rising by 1.51% against previous week’s rise of 1.21%. Looking at today’s trend of USDINR we expect a gap down opening of the currency pair. 46.97 is expected to act as a crucial support for the pair on intraday basis.

Market Summary

Last trading day: Thursday, 29 October

 Global weakness, end of October F&O series saw volatility on the Indian market that ended at the low point of the day but on heavy volumes. The recovery in the day was seen as a short covering rally. Experts believe there could be a bounce in the near-term after 8 straight days of correction and this could be used as an opportunity to book profits. Sensex shut shop at 16052, down 230 points and Nifty was at 4750, down 75 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1.25% and BSE Smallcap index was down 1.29%. There was heavy selling in realty stocks, index down 6%. The market breadth was in the negative with advances at 317 against declines of 958 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Mahindra & Mahindra, BPCL and Ranbaxy while losers were DLF, RCom and Reliance Capital.

Daily Trading Tips..

FIRST CALL



CIPLA LTD
Execution Price Range                       Stop Loss                   Target
Buy Between Rs 295 to 300              293                             307



AXISBANK
Execution Price Range                      Stop Loss                     Target
Sell Between Rs 925 to 935               938                             912



RANBAXY
Execution Price Range                        Stop Loss                  Target
Buy Between Rs 375 to 385              374                             392

Currency Market

USD/INR DAILY



Dollar touched Rs.47.45/ USDafter a  25 paisa gap up opening, indicating that bullishness has returned to the currency pair. The currency pair rose approximately 47 paisa from the previous close indicating high volatility. The prime factors that moved the pair were (1) a rising dollar index and (2) a falling equity markets.
Dollar index touched 76.42 levels as investors moved to safe haven asset classes from riskier assets like stocks and commodities. The anticipation of rise in interest rates in coming quarters is being discounted by the markets. . Dow Jones fell by 119 points to close at 9762 after weaker than expected results of American corporate. Added to this, unexpected decrease in U.S home sales in September damped demand for high yielding assets. Nifty continued to fall for the seventh consecutive session with index falling by 20 points at 4826 levels. Tuesday’s monetary policy continued to show its effect with banking sector leading the fall.
With USDINR breaching the 47.20 level, the intermediate term trend has become bullish. One can expect the pair to touch 48 levels form here in coming days. For intraday, 47.20 will act as a crucial support level.



                    Pivot           Support 1        Support 2         Resistance 1         Resistance 2 
Spot              47.26           47.14            46.91                47.49                   47.61 
Nov. Future 47.33                47.20          46.99              47.55                    47.68

Activity In F&O

Activity in F&O

Nifty October future closed negative on Wednesday at 4826.55 levels. Nifty futures saw increase in OI to the tune of 2.13% with fall in price by 0.45%. Market opened negative with a gap of 18 points as taking cues from global market. Market witnessed selling pressure in Capital Goods, Banking, PSU, Auto, Power and Metal sector stocks whereas saw buying interest in Realty, Tech, Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, IT and Health Care sector stocks. Nifty October future premium remained flat as compare to previous day’s premium of 2 points. Nifty future finally closed negative with the loss of 22 points from previous trading day. FIIs were buyers in index futures to the tune of 119.13 Cr and buyers in Index option to the tune of 190.45 Cr. The F&O segment of the market saw decrease in turnover as compared to previous trading session. The market turnover decreased by 11.90 percent in terms of number of contracts traded vis-à-vis previous trading day and in terms of rupees decreased by 12.48 percent.

Indication & Outlook

The PCR OI of NIFTY has changed from 1.09 to 1.06 levels thus indicates selling pressure in the market at current levels. IV of NIFTY has changed from 26.26 to 26.95 thus indicating range bound move in the market. Nifty futures saw increase in OI with fall in price indicating built of short positions in the market at current levels. Conclusion

Overall data indicates that we can see negative to range bound move in the market at current levels. If Nifty future sustains below 4750 levels then selling pressure may get intense in the market and Nifty may correct further till 4700-4680 levels. Buying interest may emerge in the market if Nifty sustains above 4900 levels.

Market Summary

Last trading day: Wednesday, 28 October

 Ahead of F&O expiry Today, the market saw another volatile session of trade that ended flat but on high volumes. Experts see a short covering rally in the near-term but the trend looks weak. Sensex shut shop at 16283, down 69 points and Nifty is at 4826, down 20 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.58% and BSE Smallcap index was down 0.44%. The market breadth is in the negative with advances at 485 against declines of 781 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Ranbaxy, Jindal Steel and Wipro while losers were Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel and Suzlon.

Market Strategy

The Strategist

Strategies for the day

Date                Company   View                   Strategies          Action                                  Risk        Reward
28-10-2009    NIFTY      BEARISH BEAR PUT SPREAD BUY 4800 PE @ 125 4867 3350      6650
OCT. EXPIRY
SELL 4600 PE @ 58
Graphic Snapshot
Trading Laws:
• A Trader not observing STOP LOSS cannot survive for long.
• Never re-schedule your stop loss, square up first and then take a fresh view.
• Book small losses by buying / selling near support / resistance, and look for big gains, this will maximize the gains.

Daily Market Tips

First Call



MARUTI SUZUKI
Execution Price Range                       Stop Loss              Target
Sell Between Rs 1475 to 1485             1496                   1448



STERLITE INDS
Execution Price Range                     Stop Loss               Target
Sell Between Rs 775 to 785               792                      756


LIC HOUSING FINANCE
Execution Price Range                     Stop Loss              Target
Sell Between Rs 805 to 815               821                     788

USD/INR DAILY

Dollar

The much awaited monetary policy was declared by the RBI yesterday which hinted that the central bank will look forward for raising the rates in coming days. RBI governor D. Subbarao also stated that monetary policy’s first priority would be to contain the inflationary expectation which is expected to touch 6.5% by March 2010.Policy Rates like REPO, Reverse REPO as well as CRR were left unchanged but SLR(statutory Liquidity Ratio) which is minimum required investment by banks in government securities was raised from 24% to 25% of deposits. Also some steps towards rolling back of easy money policy was taken when it terminated credit refinance limits extended to banks against loan give to exporters and mutual fund companies.
The net effect of this decision was weakening of the rupee against the Dollar with the pair breaching the 47 mark and closing at the same levels while equity markets tumbled by 124 points to close the day at 4846 levels. Bond yields fell on expectation of higher inflows from banks with 10 year benchmark yield quoting at 7.32% from 7.45% previously. We continue to be bullish on the pair with USDINR expected to touch 47.25 levels . 



                              Pivot             Support1    Support 2   Resistance 1      Resistance 2
Spot                       46.90           46.78         46.64             47.04                   47.15
Nov. Future          46.99           46.89          46.77            47.11                   47.21

Market Summary

Last trading day: Tuesday, 27 October

 It was a disappointing day of trade yesterday as the market closed at the low point of the day. Market saw the biggest point fall on the Sensex and Nifty since August 17 post the RBI's credit policy blow in the afternoon. The policy hit real estate stocks hard that dragged the market lower and Nifty breached the crucial 4900 level. Market also recorded the third highest turnover of Rs 1.46 lakh crore on account of F&O expiry and resultant volatility this week. Sensex shut shop at 16353, down 387 points and Nifty at 4846, down 124 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 3.68% and BSE Smallcap index was down 4.42%. The market breadth was in the negative with advances at 113 against declines of 1174 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Wipro, Tata Motors and Sun Pharmawhile losers were Reliance Capital, Hindalco and Unitech.

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The Strategist

Strategies for the day

Date             Company View          Strategies       Action                             Risk            Reward
27-10-2009 ITC          BULLISH  BUY CALL   BUY 265 CA @ 3.40     1575             3150
OCT. EXPIRY
SL: 2.00 TGT: 6.00
Graphic Snapshot
Trading Laws:
• A Trader not observing STOP LOSS cannot survive for long.
• Never re-schedule your stop loss, square up first and then take a fresh view.
• Book small losses by buying / selling near support / resistance, and look for big gains, this will maximize the gains.

Daily Trading Calls

Free Trading Tips

UNITED SPIRITS (MCDOWELL_N)

Execution Price Range                      Stop Loss                   Target

Buy Between Rs 1020 to 1040         1010                           1069

DLF

Execution Price Range                     Stop Loss                        Target

Sell Between Rs 425 to 431           433                                    418

RANBAXY

Execution Price Range                      Stop Loss                       Target

Buy Between Rs 372 to 379                371                              384

USD/INR DAILY

Forex Market

Dollar continued to trade in uptrend trend with november contract closing near high at 46.73 levels from a flat opening of Rs.46.58/USD.Some important events both on the domestic front as well as internationally are expected to guide the prices of USDINR for today.Firstly it will be the monetary policy of India which will be in focus where RBI will come up with REPO, Reverse REPO and CRR statements.We expect RBI to keep them un‐changed, however the statement from RBI governor will assume its significance. We expect a hawkish statement from RBI governor indicating the time frame where the Central Bank might look forward to increase the interest rates. In other news RBI survey of Professional Forecasters suggested a downward revision in the growth outlook for 2009‐2010 from 6.5% to 6%. In the international currency markets, the dollar index strengthened and touched 76 levels after speculation that U.S lawmakers will phase out a tax credit for the Home buyers and Bank of America will sell shares to pay back its government’s bailout. Overall we expect a gap up opening for USDINR with 47.15 levels acting as a crucial resistance.

Market Summary

Market Summary


 It was a volatile and weak day of trade for our market today and traders are jittery ahead of the RBI's credit policy tomorrow. This is also F&O expiry week so experts expect some choppiness. The market closed in the negative today with buying in IT and auto stocks and selling in realty and banking stocks. Sensex shut shop at 16740, down 70 points and Nifty at 4970, down 26 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1.61% and BSE Smallcap index was down 1.31%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 389 against declines of 891 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Cipla, Ranbaxy and Tata Steel while losers wereUnitech, DLF and Suzlon.

Daily Tips

Trading Tips.


 Buy Bajaj Hindustan with target of Rs 250 and stop loss of Rs 230. The stock is currently trading at Rs 236.50, up 1.7% on the BSE. 


Hold GAIL with long-term target of Rs 450-500. The stock is currently trading at Rs 357.15, down 1.6% on the BSE


Buy ITC with target of Rs 280 and stop loss of Rs 240. The stock is currently trading at Rs 262.25, up 0.9% on the BSE. 


Sell Zee Entertainment with intra-day target of Rs 215 and stop loss of Rs 232. The stock 229.10, up 1% on the BSE.


Buy PNB with target of Rs 890 and stop loss of Rs 850. The stock is currently trading at Rs 864.50, up 0.03% on the BSE.


Buy MIC Electronics with intra-day target of Rs 55 and stop loss of Rs 47. The stock is currently trading at Rs 49.50, up 2.2% on the BSE


An hour into opening, the market is trading in the red and looking a bit weak having come under selling pressure. Sensex is trading at 16743, down 67 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 4973, down 23 points. CNX Midcap index is down 1% and BSE Smallcapindex is down 0.7%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 408 against declines of 789 on the NSE. 

INR Weekly

Fundamental Analysis
Dollar registered a smart recovery this week after three consecutive weeks fall amid short covering as well as buyingof dollars by oil marketing companies. The USDINR which touched 45.82 levels the previous week jumped by almosta full rupee as it made a high of 46.80 levels. Although a relief rally was expected in the pair, the fact that dollar index did not support the rise of USDINR was one the key features of the week. Better than expected American results did not act as a deterrent for the equity markets to fall as correction was witnessed in major equity indices, which also helped the pair to rise.
Dollar Index
The dollar index continued to show weakness,
touched a 14 month low at 75.05. Although 75.00
levels seem to be a crucial psychological support,
a breach of this level would lead to further
weakness and is a major concern for other
currencies which are appreciating. Uneasiness
was seen among euro zone countries, as ECB
officials claimed that weaker dollar is bound to
affect exports.
Pound sterling and Euro were the major gainers
in the dollar index, where as the Japanese yen
rise is halted.
Higher Crude Oil Prices – A Concern for Central Bankers
Crude oil prices breached the $80 mark this
week leading to concerns of higher inflation
for economies worldwide. A combination of
weakness in dollar along with lower
inventories was a critical reason for rise of
crude oil. However the percentage rise of
Crude Oil was more in US Dollar rather than
other currencies. In Euro terms Crude oil was
quoting at 53 Euros which was near to its
august highs while in Rupee Terms crude
was at Rs.3711/barrel which was marginally
up from August high of Rs.3700/barrel. Thus
in actual terms higher crude prices may not
affect other economies so soon because the
fair price still remains at August levels.
However Talking specifically about the Indian
economy the food based inflation is on rise
and if crude oil continues to rise at this pace the fuel inflation will also start its upward trend which is expected tocreate further problems for the economy. Bond yieldshave also risen with 10 year benchmark yield touching 7.47%in anticipation of interest rate rise in near future.


Credit Growth – A Concern For Indian economy
In another development Low demand for loans pushed credit growth to a 12-year low of 10.75% during the year up to October 9. The previous low of 9.78 % was during the fortnight ended November 11, 1997. According to the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), for the fortnight ended October 9, 2009, bank credit grew Rs 17,160 crore. In contrast, after the credit crisis intensified in September last year, banks lent Rs 64,937 crore during the fortnight ended October 9, 2008. Lower demand of funds from the credit sector was one of the main reasons forthe fall of credit demand
Conclusion
This week it will be the credit policy of RBI which will be the main focus of currency traders. Although we do not expect any change in REPO and Reverse REPO rates this time but the statement of RBI Governor will assume its significance. Looking at RBI’s governor statement a few weeks back that India might have to take lead over developing world in increasing interest rates we expect a hawkish statement from the governor. This might lead to Rupee Strengthening over the dollar in short term and might touch 47 levels in coming days. Apart from this a potential correction in Indian equity markets will lead to strengthening of the currency pair.
Technical Analysis Looking at USDINR spot charts, one can see the currency pair in a pullback mode with 46.81 levels acting at a crucial resistance. This levels is also 23.6% retracement of the fall from 49.20 to 45.82. The pair has been consolidating at those levels for 3-4 days now. A decisive breach of 46.81 will take pair towards 47.11 levels.

Currency Market

Forex USD/INR DAILY

A 30 paisa  gap down opening was the main feature of the day as bulls  tried hard to regain its lost territory and were successful to a certain
extent. Dollar November contract opened gap down at 46.55 paisa losing 30 paisa from previous close of 46.85 and eventually closing the
day at 46.65. Nifty opened the day 55 points up and touched 5054 but gave up its gains and closed the day at 4997 just 8 points positive
from previous close. The dollar index continued to trade sideways between 75.38 and 75.06.
The highlight of the day was the 10 year benchmark bond yield of India which rose from 7.35% to 7.45% on Friday. The reason attributed to
this rise was the bond auction which was conducted by the RBI on Friday. RBI sold bond’s worth Rs. 100 billion (Rs.10000 Cr.) of different
maturities with yields ranging from 7.48% to 8.43%.
Looking at the trend of USDINR we fell bullishness to sustain in the currency pair in coming days. For intraday we expect 46.45 to be very
crucial level for November futures.

Weekly Market Summary

The Securities and Exchange Board of India has allowed stock exchanges to extend the trade timing from the present 10 am to 3.30 pm to 9am to 5 pm, reports NDTV Profit. The reason: the market regulator believes it is important to align Indian markets as far as possible with international markets, as it would attract international trading. Details on implementation are awaited.


Market Summary


It was a volatile week for our market that continued to be under pressure. Experts feel if there is a correction in the market it would be healthy. Next week is F&O expiry so expect some volatility and interest rates are unlikely to be changed. Earnings too have been in line with expectations, so by month end the market will get a clearer direction. This week's figures were: Sensex and Nifty both down almost 3%. BSE Midcap index was down 2.1%, BSE Smallcap index down 1.3% over the week.BSE Oil & Gas index was down 6.5%, BSE Consumer Goods index down 6%, BSE Realty index down 3.5%,BSE Metal index down 2.2%. BSE IT index was up 3.25% and BSE FMCG index up 1.25 3%.


It was a flat close for our market on last day with a late selloff wiping out all the early morning gains. Our market underperformed in the global space. Sensex shut shop at 16810, up 21 points and Nifty at 4997, up 8 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 1.07% and BSE Smallcap index was up 0.34%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 668 against declines of 598 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers includedITC, Hindalco and IDFC while losers were GAIL, RIL &L&T.

The Strategist

Strategies for the day

Date              Company        View              Strategies           Action                         Risk                  Reward
23-10-2009 ICICIBANK    BEARISH      BUY PUT        BUY 880 PUT @ 12  1750                   3500
OCT. EXPIRY
SL : 7.00 TGT :22.00
Graphic Snapshot
Trading Laws:
• A Trader not observing STOP LOSS cannot survive for long.
• Never re-schedule your stop loss, square up first and then take a fresh view.
• Book small losses by buying / selling near support / resistance, and look for big gains, this will maximize the gains.

Daily Trading Tips..

FIRST CALL 



ICICIBANK
Execution Price Range                                 Stop Loss                Target
Sell Between Rs 900 to 920                           926                        879



HINDUNILVR
Execution Price Range                                Stop Loss                  Target
Buy Between Rs 275 to 280                      273.50                        285


INFOSYSTCH
Execution Price Range                               Stop Loss                Target
Buy Between Rs 2200 to 2220                   2190                         2250

Currency Market

USD/INR DAILY



Dollar continued its RISE against the rupee for the 3rd consecutive day as the pair touched high of 46.82 before closing the day at 46.76
levels. Weakness in the equity markets was one of the main triggers that lead to the rise of the dollar. Nifty fell by 75 points or 1.48% to
close the day at 4988 points. The prime driver of the asset classes continued to be dollar index which was quoting at 75.09 levels which was
near 14 months low of 75.05. The reason was the Leading Indicators data which was released yesterday and was better than expected,
painting a positive picture for the U.S economy in coming days.
Higher crude oil prices seems to be the major concern for the central bankers as inflation is all set to rise and might touch double digit levels
if crude oil prices do not fall. The Wholesale Price Index of India rose by 1.21% against an expectation of rise of 1.10%. While bonds
remained flat at as yields on 10 year benchmark bonds stood at 7.35%
Overall we expect some downside in USDINR in morning trades however 46.45 will continue to be a crucial support for October futures.

Daily Trading Strategy

The Strategist

Strategies for the day

Date             Company      View          Strategies      Action                                      Risk                     Reward
22-10-2009 ICICIBANK BEARISH BUY PUT     BUY 920 PA @ 19.00             2450                    4900
OCT. EXPIRY
SL : 12.00 TGT : 33.00

First Call

Daily Trading Tips

M&M (MAHINDARA & MAHINDARA)

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Sell Between Rs 885 to 905 910 865

TATASTEEL

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Sell Between Rs 550 to 560 562 541

MPHASIS

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Buy Between Rs 650 to 660 648 669

Market Outlook

Global cues are weighing heavy on our markets,

because of which our markets have become volatile

even after better corporate earnings. Especially news

flow like US where yesterday it failed to sustain the

10000 mark even after dollar index making a new low

of 75.08, crude made a new high of the year of $82

on inventory data and even the 10yr yield has been

increasing. Though the long term story stills remains

intact of uptrend because the economic outlook by

the PMEAC (Prime ministers Economic Advisory

council) still project our GDP growth at 6.5% though

the concerns over bad monsoon, increase in inflation

and interest rates still persist. Also hinting of soft

interest rates for the time being but not ruling out the

changes in them before other economies would act.

We need to wait and watch for our next credit policy

which will be out on Oct 27th though the expectations

of rate changes are very minute.

Today the global markets are weak and FII’s have

also been sellers yesterday hence our markets may

also see a weak start and therefore we have a

cautious view for today.

Currency Market

USD/INR DAiLY

High volatility in asset classes across the globe did show its affect on USDINR pair as the currency pair touched 46.50, registering a smart

recovery of 70 paisa in a matter of one week after making its low of 45.82. Although internationally dollar index was quoting below 75.50

level mark, the rise in USDINR indicates a breach of correlation from the international currency markets briefly. The EURUSD pair traded

near 1.50 after reports showed improvement in U.S leading indicators and German Business confidence. However American equity index

the Dow Jones closed down by 92 points at 9949 after selling was witnessed in computer related stocks lead by IBM.

Bearishness in equity markets was partly responsible for rise of USDINR with Nifty falling by 50 points to close the day at 5063 levels.

However the main concern for USDINR continued to be higher oil prices. Crude oil in NYMEX breached the $80 mark and was quoting at

$81.37/barrel. Rise in crude oil prices is expected to affect Rupee as costs of Imports is expected to rise leading to increase in trade deficit.

Also higher crude oil prices will lead to rise in inflation which will trigger rise of interest rates by the central bankers.

Overall we feel 46.45 as a very crucial level for the pair on intraday basis. As long as USDINR trades above these levels one can go long in the

pair.

Yesterday Market Summary

Market Summary

It was a ranged and mildly volatile day of trade that saw the market end weak on account of profit booking. Sensex shut shop at 17009, down 213 points and Nifty at 5063, down 50 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1.88% and BSE Smallcap index was up 0.23%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 496 against declines of 776 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included HCL Technologies,Jindal Steel and TCS while losers were Tata Motors, Tata Steel and HDFC.

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Strategies for the Day

Strategies for the day

Date Company View Strategies Action Risk Reward

21-10-2009 SAIL BULLISH BUY CALL BUY 200 CA @ 3.50 2025 4050

OCT. EXPIRY

SL : 2.00 TGT : 6.50

First Call

Daily Trading Tips

HIND PETRO (HPCL)

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Buy Between Rs 370 to 375 368 381

BHEL

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Sell Between Rs 2460 to 2480 2490 2432

AXISBANK

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Sell Between Rs 991 to 997 1002 979

Currency Market

USD/INR

Dollar opened weaker on Tuesday but regained lost territory as Indian equity markets flattered. USDINR opened the day at 46.06 after a

long weekend and fell to 45.96 levels but closed the day at 46.13 after Equity index fell by nearly 50 points from day’s opening to close the

day at 5114. What prompted this selling was strengthening of Dollar Index which after making a 14 month low of 75.12 started rising and

was quoting at 75.60 on early morning Wednesday.

The prime mover of the dollar index was a weak housing starts and building permits data of U.S where figures came lesser than expected.

Housing starts stood at 590K against expectation of 610K while Building Permits was quoted at 573K against expectation of 595K. DJIA fell

after the release of the data with Dow closing down by 50 points at 10041.

In the domestic markets Bond yields continued to rise as the 10 year benchmark yield was quoting at 7.404% against 7.36% previously.

Overall we expect a gap up opening for the currency pair with 46.75 acting as a crucial resistance.

First Call

Market TIPS

RELCAPITAL

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Buy Between Rs 947 to 955 940 973

HDFCLTD

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Buy Between Rs 2750 to 2762 2742 2784

JINDAL STEEL POWER

Execution Price Range Stop Loss Target

Buy Between Rs 616 to 624 610 640

Daily Market Tips

The Strategist

Strategies for the day

Date Company View Strategies Action Risk Reward

14-10-2009 HINDUNILVR BULLISH BUY CALL BUY 300CA @ 3.80 2500 4700

OCT. EXPIRY

SL : 1.30 TGT 8.50

Trading Laws:

• A Trader not observing STOP LOSS cannot survive for long.

• Never re-schedule your stop loss, square up first and then take a fresh view.

• Book small losses by buying / selling near support / resistance, and look for big gains, this will maximize the gains.

• Don’t try to anticipate the change in main trend, so don’t go against trend.

Forex Market

DOLLARINR

Dollar opened on Monday on a stronger note and made a high of 46.71 levels but was unable to sustain higher levels eventually closing the

day at 46.49. Nifty also complimented the fall in dollar with the equity index rising by 109 points or 2.21% at 5054 points.

The prime driver of the market was India’s Industrial Production data which rose the most in 22 months. The industrial production jumped

10.4% in August from a year earlier after gaining a revised 7.2% in July. The 10 year benchmark bond yields rose to 7.34% after this news

from 7.27% previously as markets expect demand for capital to rise with rise in Industrial production. The bond yields are expected to rise

further as a number of IPO’s are expected to hit primary markets in coming days. Bond yields made a high of 7.46% in early September,

however we expect yields to breach that high in coming days.

Another key feature that will be affecting the USDINR pair will be breach of 76 levels by the dollar index. The dollar index was quoting at

75.68 in early morning trade on Wednesday.

Overall 46.15 is expecetd to act as a crucial intraday support for the currency pair.

Yesterday Market Summary

Positive global cues and good IIP data helped our market close a good session of trade today (tomorrow the market will be closed on account of polls, as it's a state holiday in Maharashtra and resume trading on October 14). Sensex shut shop at 17026, up 384 points and Nifty at 5054, up 109 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 1.57% and BSE Smallcap index was up 1.05%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 823 against declines of 443 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included SBI, Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Capital while the losers wereAmbuja Cement, GAIL and Hero Honda.

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Weekly Market Summary

After a ranged week the market closed on a disappointing note despite good global cues. Through the week the market saw flat and cautious trading. This week's performance was average and the numbers are: Sensex down 2.8% and Nifty down 2.7%. CNX Midcap index was up 0.76%, while BSE Smallcap index was down 2.8% over the week. BSE Realty index down 2.6%, BSE Consumer Durables index up 5.4%, BSE Metal index up 1.8%, BSE IT index down 7.4% and BSE Auto index down 2.4%.

It was a sticky trading day for the Indian market because of intense selling pressure towards the latter part of the day. Firm global cues and good Q2 results from Infosys did not have much of a positive effect on the market. Sensex shut shop at 16642, down 200 points and Nifty at 4945, down 57 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.4% and BSE Smallcapindex was down 0.7%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 383 against declines of 886 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Bharti Airtel, RCom and ONGCwhile losers included Tata Motors, Ranbaxy and PNB.