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Monday, September 19, 2011
Reminder about your invitation from Narendra Yadav
Derivatives Strategist 19 September 2011
Market Outlook
After a gap up opening, Nifty future remained highly volatile in a range of 30-35 points and moved up towards 5150 levels. After the RBIs rate hike news, it was unable to hold higher levels and closed below 5100 levels. On option front, maximum Put OI is at 4700 strike and fresh writing seen at 5000 strike while maximum Call OI is at 5200 followed by 5300 strike. If Nifty future sustains above 5100 levels then it may move up towards 5150-5200 levels. On downside if it fails to hold 5000 levels, then selling pressure may get intensified in the market towards 4900 levels. Now 4900 levels would be immediate strong support as of now for the market.
Derivatives Calls : Buy IRB infra and Educomp solution
Fwd: First Morning Technical Call_19092011
Market Outlook:
S&P CNX Nifty holding 5060 is important for the day and crossing 5110 would be positive for market where 5170 could be possible levels. On negative side if Nifty fails to break 5100 then 5060 is major support breaking which 5020 become important. Nifty on daily charts has Inverse Head & Shoulder and any break-out above 5170 then 250-300points rally becomes possible. Nifty on Weekly basis has closed 3rd week in positive after 5weeks of correction and weekly support 4940 below which market would start fresh correction towards 4720-4500-4350 till then bear phase of rally which is very fast and swift should be played smartly. Refining margin GRM has stayed higher around $9.5 and this normally benefits standalone refiners like RELIANCE, ESSAROIL, MRPL and CHENNAIPETRO while RELIANCE and ESSAROIL benefit from weak rupee due to exports.
§ Sensex- holding 16750 is important to target higher with 17200 which is double top formation and 17358 above previous Gap-down would start getting filled. Sensex trading below 16837 which is opening of previous day selling pressure can be high. SENSEX 20DMA-16590, 100DMA-17926, 200DMA-18476 and 200Week MA-16065. Sensex for 5weeks of downtrend has seen 3weeks of rally this week closing would play crucial role.
Technical Calls:
GLENMARK-328, stock has been trading in a range, now triangle break-out is seen which could give Rs.356 as possible target and sustaining above which even Rs.390 could be possible in the stock which benefits from weaker Rupee due to high export. Stock has closed above 20DMA Rs.322 while stock already trades above other averages 100DMA Rs.312 & 200DMA Rs.313.
MOIL-309, stock has closed @ highest level in 20trading days on higher volumes and in process closed above 20DMA after 36trading days, pointing to strong buying emerging @ lower level. Stock after strong listing made high of Rs.591, after which stock has been gradually coming down and made low Rs.290. Stock looks good to target Rs.340 which is 100DMA or Rs.348 which is falling trend line connecting highs.
Technical View: Make/Break
ITC-197, Stock is trading in a triangle pattern and moving in a tight range and where Make/break is important stock below Rs.192 on closing basis is clear Break-out, while stock has to close above Rs.203 for any break-out and make new high above Rs.211.25. Stock is showing distribution pattern on charts and any break-down 8-10% correction is possible.
Fundamental Weekly Wrap
OUTLOOK
Investors took the 25 basis points rate hike in their stride as it was on expected lines. Experts were expecting that this would be the last rate hike from the central bank but that may not be the case. RBI said it would continue with its anti-inflationary stance as inflation is much above the comfort zone. Even global economic environment has worsened.
On global front Wall Street hopes for more Fed action and clear signs European leaders will follow through on their new urgency to tackle the eurozone debt crisis if US stocks are to build on their best week since early July.
The markets are expected to continue their volatility with lot of events happening domestically and on the global front.
We maintain our cautious view on the markets.
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