News Views & Events 8th April 2013

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News:

Ø  Sanofi's Indian has acquired 1,50,000 sq ft of office space from L&T Realty at its new project in Powai, a suburb in Mumbai, for Rs. 220 Crs, making it the largest in deal value so far this year.

Ø  Petronet LNG plans to raise Rs.600 Crs in debt to fund expansion of its Dahej LNG terminal in Gujarat.

Ø  The 3,000 Mw Kaniha power station of NTPC continues to reel under acute coal crisis with the plant surviving on a coal stock of less than one day's requirement over the past one week.

Ø  Bilcare Technologies, a subsidiary of listed Bilcare, has decided to sell around 26% stake to an strategic or financial partner to raise around Rs.200-300 Crs to fund its future growth and market its various products across the globe.

Ø  The Department of Disinvestment is working on tweaking the offer-for-sale (OFS) mechanism for PSU stake sale by carving out a separate 5% category for retail investors.

Ø  Cadila Healthcare had recently recalled select batches of its anti-depressant tablet medicine, venlafaxine hydrochloride, from the US market.

Ø  Power Grid board approves 7 investment proposals worth Rs 3,451 Crs.

Ø  Ashok Leyland okays merger of 4 subsidiaries.

Ø  The State Bank of India (SBI), plans to raise up to $1 billion through five-year bonds next week to meet foreign currency requirements of Indian companies.

Ø  Mahindra Holidays IPP. Opens and closes on April 9th. Price band Rs.255-265. To issue 41.41 lakh shares.

Ø  Telecom min calls for revival of BSNL and MTNL. DoT also ask for Rs 23000 Crs bailout for these 2 company.

Ø  Bajaj Auto Close to Launching India's First Quadricycle. The company to start production at its Aurangabad plant this fiscal; says talks with Renault-Nissan on track.

Ø  Bank of Baroda revises interest rate on term deposits w.e.f April 6. Bank of Baroda denies allegations of illegal transfer of funds:

Key events for the day:

Ø  Release of German Industrial Production data in Euro Zone.

 

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First Morning Technical Call 8th April 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5553) : CNX Nifty closed lowest in 138 trading days  and could not fill the gap-down (5650.1-5644.45) caused on 4^th april,2013. Nifty has touched its lowest level in 134 days at 5534 (leaving freak trade made on 5^th October2012) which was low of 20^th September 2012. So till Nifty doesn't breach 5520, expect relief rally till 5631 or 5695 before any fresh down move, but if 5520 is breached then 5441 & 5282 on lower side. For the day Nifty has to hold 5530 and cross 5582 to target 5630 & 5690 while below 5530 then 5480 & 5447 looks possible on lower side. Nifty has closed lowest in 30 weeks and trading near 7months low which is highly oversold. Finance minister P Chida mbaram on Saturday said the fiscal deficit for 2012-13 will be better than 5.2 percent as tax-collection target of over Rs 10.38 lakh crore has been achieved. FM hoped that the insurance Laws (amendment) Bill will be passed in the budget session. The second leg of the budget session is expected to start on April 22.

SENSEX (18450): Sensex closed below 200DMA 18596 for 2 days thereby closing lowest in as many as  94 trading days, as the index has lost over 2 % on a weekly basis. Sensex for the day has to cross 18540 and sustain 18360 on the downside in order to make any possible attempts to move towards 18720 - 18820 in the days to come. Sensex failing to hold onto current levels and below 18400 could spell real trouble for the index as it wou ld open up 18200 -18050 levels. Sensex has given a clear breakdown from the 38.2% retracement move of its entire move from 15748 to 20203,the next Fibonacci retracement at 50% comes at 17976 levels.

 TECHNICAL CALLS 

BUY RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Rs. 780 :  RELIANCE has corrected from high of Rs.955 to low of Rs.764 and with Rs.764 forming double bottom support possible relief rally 810 or 835 is possible and stock  is trading along the median line of the falling Andrews pitchfork pattern which suggests that the fall ,which the stock has observed is a normal  correction and now, if the stock takes support from current levels and moves above 798,the stock could give  pullback of 6-7% as a cluster of supports are pegged at around 760-765 levels for the stock.

SELL EXIDE INDS Rs. 120 :  EXIDE INDS is trading within a falling channel on weekly charts and looks weak for an 8-10% correction from current levels as it has also given a clear rising trend line breakout on daily charts with rise in volumes. The stock is trading below its major moving averages 200DMA Rs.136, 100DMA Rs.133 and 50DMA Rs.126 and should be sold on any rise for potential downside targets of Rs.108-106 on the down side.

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Derivatives Strategist 8th April 2013

Data Feeler: Nifty future continued it southward journey for the third consecutive trading day with sell off seen witnessed strong sell off seen many frontline counters. Nifty traded in the red territory for the almost entire trading session on Friday with facing strong hurdle near psychological 5600 mark. Nifty future for the day, if sustains above 5600 levels then only some relief rally may be seen towards 5650 levels. Whereas sustaining below 5570 levels may put further selling pressure in the market towards 5550-5520 levels. Looking at the option concentration data for April series, maximum put OI is concentrated at 5600 followed by 5500 strike price and maximum call OI is at 5700 followed by 5800 strike prices. 5600 puts unwin ding was seen suggesting pressure may remain continue till the time it is holding below 5600 psychological levels whereas if it sustains above this area then strong short covering move could not be ruled out in the market. Bank Nifty for the day has strong support around psychological 11000 levels whereas it has immediate hurdle around 11300 levels.

 

Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty moved down from 0.88 to 0.81 levels. Historical Volatility of Nifty moved down from 17.95 to 17.49 levels but Implied Volatility moved up from 15.29 to 15.38 levels.

 

Nifty future saw increase in OI by 6.24% with a fall in price by 0.38%. Market witnessed marginal buying interest in Oil & Gas, Auto, Metal and PSU space whereas selling pressure was seen in FMCG, CD, CG, Power, Banking, Tech, Realty and IT sector stocks. Nifty future closed at premium of 19 points as compared to premium of 18 points in previous trading session.

 

The market turnover decreased by 14.6% in terms of number of contracts traded vis-à-vis previous trading day whereas in terms of rupees decreased by 14.8%.

 

Derivative Calls: Buy on ONGC & Sell on HDFC LTD.

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