MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY (5553) : CNX Nifty closed lowest in 138 trading days and could not fill the gap-down (5650.1-5644.45) caused on 4th april,2013. Nifty has touched its lowest level in 134 days at 5534 (leaving freak trade made on 5th October2012) which was low of 20th September 2012. So till Nifty doesn't breach 5520, expect relief rally till 5631 or 5695 before any fresh down move, but if 5520 is breached then 5441 & 5282 on lower side. For the day Nifty has to hold 5530 and cross 5582 to target 5630 & 5690 while below 5530 then 5480 & 5447 looks possible on lower side. Nifty has closed lowest in 30 weeks and trading near 7months low which is highly oversold. Finance minister P Chida mbaram on Saturday said the fiscal deficit for 2012-13 will be better than 5.2 percent as tax-collection target of over Rs 10.38 lakh crore has been achieved. FM hoped that the insurance Laws (amendment) Bill will be passed in the budget session. The second leg of the budget session is expected to start on April 22.
SENSEX (18450): Sensex closed below 200DMA 18596 for 2 days thereby closing lowest in as many as 94 trading days, as the index has lost over 2 % on a weekly basis. Sensex for the day has to cross 18540 and sustain 18360 on the downside in order to make any possible attempts to move towards 18720 - 18820 in the days to come. Sensex failing to hold onto current levels and below 18400 could spell real trouble for the index as it wou ld open up 18200 -18050 levels. Sensex has given a clear breakdown from the 38.2% retracement move of its entire move from 15748 to 20203,the next Fibonacci retracement at 50% comes at 17976 levels.
TECHNICAL CALLS
BUY RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Rs. 780 : RELIANCE has corrected from high of Rs.955 to low of Rs.764 and with Rs.764 forming double bottom support possible relief rally 810 or 835 is possible and stock is trading along the median line of the falling Andrews pitchfork pattern which suggests that the fall ,which the stock has observed is a normal correction and now, if the stock takes support from current levels and moves above 798,the stock could give pullback of 6-7% as a cluster of supports are pegged at around 760-765 levels for the stock.
SELL EXIDE INDS Rs. 120 : EXIDE INDS is trading within a falling channel on weekly charts and looks weak for an 8-10% correction from current levels as it has also given a clear rising trend line breakout on daily charts with rise in volumes. The stock is trading below its major moving averages 200DMA Rs.136, 100DMA Rs.133 and 50DMA Rs.126 and should be sold on any rise for potential downside targets of Rs.108-106 on the down side.
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