Fwd: Weekly Derivatives Strategist 25th March 2013

Weekly Data Feeler

 

Ø  Open Interest of Nifty future increased by 3.96% with a fall in price by 3.88% from the previous week, indicating built up of short positions as several times market failed to cross 5970-5990 levels and fell down sharply below 5900 levels.

Ø  Bank Nifty future has seen built up of short positive as OI increased by 12.62% with a significant fall in price by 5.41% from the previous week.

Ø  Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty declined sharply in last couple of days from its six months high zone of 1.29 to 0.82 levels. Falling Put Call Ratio indicating that Call writers are quite aggressive in the market. If this ratio moves above psychological 1 level then only a bounce back move may be seen in the market.

Ø  HV (Historical Volatility) of Nifty moved up from 16.65 to 17.08 levels.

Ø  Implied Volatility of Nifty also moved up from 14.89 to 15.65 levels.

 

On the Option front, maximum Put OI is at 5600 and 5700 strike, whereas maximum Call OI is at 6000 followed 5900 strike. Even after the market fall maximum Put OI is intact at 5600 and 5700 strike which indicates that this zone is likely to act as a medium term support for the market.

 

Nifty has fallen down sharply from 5945 to 5632 levels in last six trading sessions. Nifty was not holding any bounce back move and more panic was seen at every meaningful bounce in the market especially in last two trading sessions. It has fallen down sharply by more than 300 odd points in just six trading sessions. After such fall a bounce back action may be seen but overall sentiment would remain negative till Nifty future sustains below 5850 levels. If it fails to hold 5650 levels then further selling pressure may get intensified towards 5550 levels. If it managed to hold 5750 levels then it may head towards 5800-5820 levels.

 

Bank Nifty future also fallen down sharply and trading near important previous support of 11200 levels. If it moves above 11500 then only a short covering move may be seen towards 11800-12000. If it sustains below 11200 levels then it may correct till 11000-10800 levels. 

 

www.myshitphotography.com

Fwd: News Views & Events 25th March 2013

News:

Ø  The construction work for the much awaited Industrial Park of Tata Steel near Gopalpur in south Odisha is expected to start from the next month as the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) has accorded Costal Regulation Zone (CRZ) clearance to its anchor projects.

Ø  Cairn India has began natural gas sales from its prolific Rajasthan block on borders with Pakistan even as it put another oilfield in the area on production.

Ø  Reid & Taylor is up for sale in India, along with its premium portfolio of fabric and apparels.
S Kumars Nationwide (SKNL) is planning to sell a controlling stake in the company and deleverage the balance sheet. This move comes after several unsuccessful attempts to list the Reid & Taylor India business through a Rs.1000 Crs IPO.

Ø  Suzlon Energy is hitting the overseas bond markets to raise $650 million to prepay its forex debts, making it the first domestic company under CDR to do so.

Ø  The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) is likely to restart audit of Reliance Industries' spending on the KG-D6 gas block early next month after issues over scope of the scrutiny are resolved to everyone's satisfaction.

Ø  SKS Microfinance may raise Rs.3000 Crs during the next fiscal to meet its lending requirements.

Ø  Coromandel International Limited (CIL) has commissioned its third complex fertiliser plant at Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh.

Ø  The Videocon group has planned to retire a substantial portion of its Rs 29,000 Crs debt from the proceeds of the sale of its 10 per cent stake in a Mozambique gasfield, which could raise up to $3 billion (Rs 16,300 Crs) by this month-end.

Ø  Dr Reddy's Laboratories has settled a case against Canadian health science company Nordion in New Jersey District Court for a cash payment of $22.5 million (Rs.122.3 Crs).

Ø  Nestle India has approved an increase in royalty payment by 0.20% a year for the next five years to its parent firm, thereby enhancing it to 4.5% of the sales. The board of directors of Nestle India negotiated and Nestle SA accepted the increase in royalty from 3.5% to 4.5% of sales in a staggered manner by making an increase of 0.20% per annum over the next five years effective January 1, 2014.

Ø  India plans to set up a special fund to provide insurance to refineries after European re-insurers refused to cover units that process oil imported from Iran.

Ø  Ranbaxy Laboratories set to get FDA nod on alternative for Novartis' Diovan, another likely for Roche's Valcyte.

 

www.myshitphotography.com

Fwd: Derivatives Strategist 25th March 2013

Daily Data Feeler

 

Ø  Nifty future saw decrease in OI with a marginal rise in price.

Ø  Market witnessed marginal buying interest in Power, Metal and CG space whereas selling pressure was seen especially in CD, Realty, IT, Tech, HC, Oil & Gas, PSU, FMCG and Banking sector stocks.

Ø  Nifty future closed at premium of 17 points as compared to premium of 6 points in previous trading session.

Ø  Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty moved down from 0.83 to 0.82 levels.

Ø  Historical Volatility of Nifty moved down from 17.61 to 17.08 levels.

Ø  Implied Volatility also moved down from 16.78 to 15.65 levels.

 

Nifty future on Friday closed on a flattish note with no major movement was seen in the index however stock specific action was continued in the market. Nifty future ended the week on a negative note with increase in OI suggesting built up of short positions in the market and till the time it is sustaining below 5800 area Bears may remain active in the market. Nifty future for the day, if sustains above 5700 levels then only bounce back may be seen towards 5750 levels. Whereas sustaining below 5650 levels may put further selling pressure towards 5600 levels. Looking at the option concentration data for March series, maximum put OI is still intact at 5700 followed by 5600 strikes whereas maximum Call OI is at 6000 followed by 5900/5800 strike prices. Fresh call writing is seen at 5800 & 5700 strike prices suggesting immediate hurdle area for the markets in very short term. Bank Nifty for the day has immediate support around 11200- 11000 levels whereas strong hurdle around 11500 levels.

 

Derivatives Calls : Buy PFC and LUPIN

 

www.myshitphotography.com

Fwd: First Morning Technical Call 25th March 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5651): Nifty closed lowest in 17 weeks correcting almost 3.77% for the week But 5629 high of February2012 and 200DMA 5618 hold good support. This week is short week with just 3days of trading as 27^th Wednesday is Holi and 29^th is Good Friday and on 28^th we have Derivative settlement, Month and Financial year end which could keep market edgy as PCR 0.82 is considered very negative for long position.  Today Nifty has to hold 5629 and cross 5690 to Target 5750 & 5775 while any move below 5629 then 5580 & 5548 would be very important. BANKNIFTY PCR is 0.62 and has closed below 200DMA 11370 for 3 consecutive trading days, with SBIN below Rs.2050 looks weak for target of Rs.1920. Stock where CAUTION is advised this settlement NHPC(-27%), IVRCL(-26%), HDIL(-23%) SINTEX (-20%), RELINFRA (-18%), PANTALOONR (-18%), JSWSTEEL (-17%), DLF(-17%), PTC(-16%) would find it hard to recover, while ASIANPAINTS(+16) and RANBAXY(+14) short covering possible.

 SENSEX (18735):  Sensex closed lowest in 17 weeks with Gap-up(18590-18616) Made on 27^th November 2012 is pending. Sensex for the day has hold 18670 and cross 18840 to target 19025 & 19140, Now Sensex close above 19140 is required for any fresh rally.  Sensex failing to hold 18590 or slipping below said level can see sustained selling pressure till 18260-18060 on the downside. Sensex is trading below its 100DMA 19332, 50DMA 19533 and 20 DMA 19196 while 200DMA 18526 is very important in any correction.

TECHNICAL CALLS

BUY TATA CHEMICALS Rs.318: After touching its lowest level in 126 trading sessions the stock made a stellar recovery on Friday thereby closing higher by 2.29% suggesting that support based buying at lower levels is taking place in the stock. The stock's recent rally from 309 to 381.50, has been completely retraced therefore emerging of a new trend reversal could be seen if current levels are held on the down side. The stock could see a decent pullback till Rs.344 as there is good support for the stock around 310 levels.

SELL L&T Rs. 1399: L&T has made a bearish Gartley pattern on weekly charts and has begun its first leg of correction from 1700 odd levels and looks weak enough to target at least 1300-1280 in the current leg of the fall .The stock is trading below its 20 DMA Rs.1441, 50 DMA Rs.1489 levels, 200DMA Rs.1503 and 100DMA Rs.1555. The stock has made a DEAD CROSS which suggest as 200DMA has been cut by 50DMA from above.

 

www.myshitphotography.com

Fwd: First Morning Technical Call 25th March 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5651): Nifty closed lowest in 17 weeks correcting almost 3.77% for the week But 5629 high of February2012 and 200DMA 5618 hold good support. This week is short week with just 3days of trading as 27^th Wednesday is Holi and 29^th is Good Friday and on 28^th we have Derivative settlement, Month and Financial year end which could keep market edgy as PCR 0.82 is considered very negative for long position.  Today Nifty has to hold 5629 and cross 5690 to Target 5750 & 5775 while any move below 5629 then 5580 & 5548 would be very important. BANKNIFTY PCR is 0.62 and has closed below 200DMA 11370 for 3 consecutive trading days, with SBIN below Rs.2050 looks weak for target of Rs.1920. Stock where CAUTION is advised this settlement NHPC(-27%), IVRCL(-26%), HDIL(-23%) SINTEX (-20%), RELINFRA (-18%), PANTALOONR (-18%), JSWSTEEL (-17%), DLF(-17%), PTC(-16%) would find it hard to recover, while ASIANPAINTS(+16) and RANBAXY(+14) short covering possible.

 SENSEX (18735):  Sensex closed lowest in 17 weeks with Gap-up(18590-18616) Made on 27^th November 2012 is pending. Sensex for the day has hold 18670 and cross 18840 to target 19025 & 19140, Now Sensex close above 19140 is required for any fresh rally.  Sensex failing to hold 18590 or slipping below said level can see sustained selling pressure till 18260-18060 on the downside. Sensex is trading below its 100DMA 19332, 50DMA 19533 and 20 DMA 19196 while 200DMA 18526 is very important in any correction.

TECHNICAL CALLS

BUY TATA CHEMICALS Rs.318: After touching its lowest level in 126 trading sessions the stock made a stellar recovery on Friday thereby closing higher by 2.29% suggesting that support based buying at lower levels is taking place in the stock. The stock's recent rally from 309 to 381.50, has been completely retraced therefore emerging of a new trend reversal could be seen if current levels are held on the down side. The stock could see a decent pullback till Rs.344 as there is good support for the stock around 310 levels.

SELL L&T Rs. 1399: L&T has made a bearish Gartley pattern on weekly charts and has begun its first leg of correction from 1700 odd levels and looks weak enough to target at least 1300-1280 in the current leg of the fall .The stock is trading below its 20 DMA Rs.1441, 50 DMA Rs.1489 levels, 200DMA Rs.1503 and 100DMA Rs.1555. The stock has made a DEAD CROSS which suggest as 200DMA has been cut by 50DMA from above.

 

www.myshitphotography.com