Fwd: First Morning Technical Call 25th March 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5651): Nifty closed lowest in 17 weeks correcting almost 3.77% for the week But 5629 high of February2012 and 200DMA 5618 hold good support. This week is short week with just 3days of trading as 27^th Wednesday is Holi and 29^th is Good Friday and on 28^th we have Derivative settlement, Month and Financial year end which could keep market edgy as PCR 0.82 is considered very negative for long position.  Today Nifty has to hold 5629 and cross 5690 to Target 5750 & 5775 while any move below 5629 then 5580 & 5548 would be very important. BANKNIFTY PCR is 0.62 and has closed below 200DMA 11370 for 3 consecutive trading days, with SBIN below Rs.2050 looks weak for target of Rs.1920. Stock where CAUTION is advised this settlement NHPC(-27%), IVRCL(-26%), HDIL(-23%) SINTEX (-20%), RELINFRA (-18%), PANTALOONR (-18%), JSWSTEEL (-17%), DLF(-17%), PTC(-16%) would find it hard to recover, while ASIANPAINTS(+16) and RANBAXY(+14) short covering possible.

 SENSEX (18735):  Sensex closed lowest in 17 weeks with Gap-up(18590-18616) Made on 27^th November 2012 is pending. Sensex for the day has hold 18670 and cross 18840 to target 19025 & 19140, Now Sensex close above 19140 is required for any fresh rally.  Sensex failing to hold 18590 or slipping below said level can see sustained selling pressure till 18260-18060 on the downside. Sensex is trading below its 100DMA 19332, 50DMA 19533 and 20 DMA 19196 while 200DMA 18526 is very important in any correction.

TECHNICAL CALLS

BUY TATA CHEMICALS Rs.318: After touching its lowest level in 126 trading sessions the stock made a stellar recovery on Friday thereby closing higher by 2.29% suggesting that support based buying at lower levels is taking place in the stock. The stock's recent rally from 309 to 381.50, has been completely retraced therefore emerging of a new trend reversal could be seen if current levels are held on the down side. The stock could see a decent pullback till Rs.344 as there is good support for the stock around 310 levels.

SELL L&T Rs. 1399: L&T has made a bearish Gartley pattern on weekly charts and has begun its first leg of correction from 1700 odd levels and looks weak enough to target at least 1300-1280 in the current leg of the fall .The stock is trading below its 20 DMA Rs.1441, 50 DMA Rs.1489 levels, 200DMA Rs.1503 and 100DMA Rs.1555. The stock has made a DEAD CROSS which suggest as 200DMA has been cut by 50DMA from above.

 

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