Rupee Weekly

INR Weekly
November 30, 2009
CMP: Rs.46.6875/USD



Fundamental Analysis
A crucial week for international finances as Chinese and Dubai news rattled the stock exchanges the world over. The knee jerk reaction was felt in USDINR pair which fell during the beginning of the week but rose there after developments in global markets affected the currency pair. Looking at the Chronology of events initially it was better than expected American economic data lead to fall in USDINR pair however it was
followed by news flows from Dubai and China which affected the sentiments across the globe. Dollar futures opened the week at 46.55 and fell to 46.21. However panic was seen on Friday where Nifty fell by 200 points to 4806 and USDINR touched 47.16. However recovery was seen which lead to USDINR closing at 47.74 levels.

Bullish Economic Data
American economic data was better than expected that lead to fall in dollar index. Dollar

index breached the 75 levels
from downside and made a
low of 74.30 after data
indicating various
consumption patterns of
American individuals
increased drastically.
Personal Spending rose by
0.7% from -0.6% while
Personal Income rose by
0.2% in September. Housing
indicators indicated a smart
recovery as New Home Sales
rose 430K from 405K
previously.
American economy continued to rise with third-quarter gross domestic product rising by2.8%. The Federal Open Market Committee called the dollar’s depreciation “orderly” in minutes of its November meeting released yesterday.


Chinese Economy
China’s stocks fell as concern banks will have to raise capital to meet swelling loan demand dragged financial companies lower. Bank of China Ltd., which said this week it’s studying options to replenish funds The nation’s five largest banks submitted plans to regulators to raise funds. Lenders were told by the nation’s banking regulator to estimate potential deficits in 2010 based on their own loan forecasts and capital ratio targets. China has cut interest rates five times since September 2008 and encouraged $1.3 trillion of lending to boost domestic spending as the global recession curbed demand for the country’s exports.

The Dubai Factor
Asset classes across the globe were rattled after a proposal from Dubai to delay debt payments set off a slide in stocks and higher-yielding assets worldwide. Dubai World, the government investment company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities, will ask all creditors for a “standstill” agreement as it negotiates to extend debt maturities. The news shook markets recovering from the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble and contagion that threatened to rupture the global financial system last year. Though Abu Dhabi is the United Arab Emirates capital, the seat of most of its oil wealth and the largest of the seven self-governing emirates by size, it took a back seat in recent years as Dubai undertook spectacular real estate projects as a tourism and finance hub. Dubai's population rocketed to 1.5 million, as white-collar professionals from around the world took plum jobs in a country marketed as a liberal enclave in the Gulf sun.


Conclusion
Looking at the movement of USDINR during the week the question still remains whether the downward trend still exists in the pair or whether the trend has changed. Liquidity scenario in the country continues to be comfortable. Money supply (M3) which comprises of currency in circulation, bank deposits and money invested in other saving plans grew 17.8% in past two weeks to Rs.51.7 trillion. The bond yields continued to fall with benchmark yields quoting at 7.18% from 7.25% earlier this week. Industrial production is on rise with low credit off take leaving surplus with many a banks. Looking at such high liquidity it is hard to believe that USDINR will strengthen in coming days. As the famous trading jargon goes “NO SINGLE EVENT CAN CHANGE THE TREND”, we continue to have a bearish view on the pair for a target of Rs.45/USD in
coming quarter.

Technical Analysis

The chart of USDINR (spot) has two different stories to tell. Firstly, a sort of double
bottom can be seen being made at 46.2 levels. The trendline joining the top prices has
been breached but only on intraday basis. The closing has been below the trendline
indicating high probability of a fake breakout. Overall a breach below 46.21 levels will
take the pair further down. On upside 47.50 will act as a crucial resistance.

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USD/INR DAILY

Panic gripped the markets world over after news of postpontment of debt by the Dubai government. Dollar rose to make a high of Rs. 47.16/usd while Nifty fell by 200 points from day’s opening as a possible default threatened to start a second round of world wide recession. However as the day progressed markets bounced back from the lows with Nifty closing 63 points down at 4941 points while USDINR closed at Rs.46.68/USD. Dollar index also felt the heat with benchmark rising to 75.57 levels from a low of 74.22 levels witnessed two days back. The news that rattled the world markets was Dubai World, the government investment company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities, will ask all creditors for a “standstill” agreement as it negotiates to extend debt maturities. Although it is expected that its other oil rich neighbors will come to its rescue, sentiments seem to have been affected negatively for short period of time. In India although the equity markets were spontaneous in following the line of global asset classes, bond yields remained unaffected as 10 year bench mark yield quoted at 7.18% unchanged from previous day. Today quarterly GDP data of India will be released. Markets have discounted a rise of 6.3% rise in GDP. Anything above that will lead to fall in USDINR. For day we expect a gap down opening with 46.35 level acting as a crucial support for the pair.

Yesterday Market Summary

Last trading day: Friday, 27 November

 It was a volatile week for the market that ended in the negative. Experts think it's a difficult market to trade, but still feel that after some consolidation market may head higher. They feel investors could accumulate select stocks. This week's poor figures were: Sensex and Nifty both down almost 2.2%. BSE Midcap index was down 2.32%, BSE Smallcap index down 2% over the week. BSE Realty index was down 6.35%, BSE IT index down 4%,BSE Bankex index down 3%, BSE Metal index down 2.3%,BSE Consumer Goods index down 2.4%. On the gaining side, BSE FMCG index was up 0.25%.  

 It was a day of high drama on Dalal Street today, also the first day of the December series that closed on high volumes again. Dubai World announced a bad debt of $60 billion sending jitters around the world (European banks having $40 billion exposure and many Indian companies too have exposure to the Dubai market). Our market opened gap down (almost 300 points on Sensex and 100 points on Nifty) on this news but made a smart recovery at close with positive cues from European markets. Most experts believe the Dubai crisis would affect sentiments and not make any real impact on the economic fundamental of emerging markets. Sensex shut shop at 16632, down 222 points and Nifty is at 4941, down 63 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1.49% and BSE Smallcap index was down 2.14%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 219 against declines of 1061 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Suzlon,Ranbaxy and Unitech while losers were Siemens, IDFCand Axis Bank.

 Nifty nearly reached its 100 DMA at 4750 and saw a smart recovery from there, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18. The Dubai crisis may lead to a short-term correction where our market will consolidate and then resume its upmove, he says. If US markets don't fall on Monday then maybe Nifty could have made a bottom at 4800, he adds.  

The Dubai crisis has helped emerging markets correct, something that was badly required, says Mark Mobius of Templeton Asset Management on NDTV Profit. There is a huge backlog of IPOs in India, China and EMs, he says. But the Dubai default jitters are unlikely to see any real damage on the economic fundamentals of EMs, he adds. The correction could be used to do select buying, he says. 

Extended Trading Hours....!!! Is a Blessing or Curse to Indian Stock Market...???

India is one of the favorite places for foreign investor to place their money. It is not only the money that trades in stock market but it is an indispensible amount which we can’t even think of neglecting. India has got a growing economy and is a safe heaven. The economy has successfully overcome the affects of the economic downturn. Recently Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has proposed new trading timings for Indian stock markets. In this article we will discuss the relevance of this proposal.

A Review on Increased trading hours

Trading in Indian stock markets starts at 9:55 am and goes on till 3:30 pm, it goes on for around five and half hours. SEBI the regulator of Indian securities market has come up with new timings for stock markets. According to the new time table the markets will start trading from 9 am and will go on till 5 pm. SEBI has said that the new timings will be implemented only after consulting the stock exchanges and stock brokers. SEBI has also placed two conditions before stock exchanges such as;

• Efficient risk management system
• Infrastructure commensurate

Stock markets should have efficient risk management system and infrastructure commensurate. Risk management system is an integral part for carrying out efficient clearing and settlement system. It contains some of the risk containment measures like capital adequacy requirements of members, monitoring of member performance and track record, stringent margin requirements, position limits based on capital, online monitoring of member positions and automatic disablement from trading when limits are breached etc. In India NSE was the first one to adapt this system). With the increase in trading hours trading activities will increase and it means the banks and financial institutions have to increase their working hours. The infrastructure that we have now has to be improved.

TRADING Hours (Local trading hours (am to pm)

Country	Cash	Futures & Options
New York	9:30 to 4:00	6.00 to 5.00
Singapore	9:00 to 5:00	9:00 to 5:00
Tokyo	9:00 to 2:00	9:00 to 7:00
London	8:00 to 4:20	8:00 to 9:00
India ( as of now)	9:55 to 3:30	9:55 to 3:30
India (as proposed by SEBI)	9:00 to 5:00	9:00 to 5:00

Reasons supporting increase in trading hours

Some of the reasons as stated by SEBI supporting the increase in trading hours are;

• The events occurring have their effects on the stock market and events happening on foreign land can have a bearing on Indian stock market. It is done so as to align Indian markets with other Asian markets.
• With the increased trading hours investors can assimilate information and take the investing decision accordingly.
• The volatility, market efficiency stabilizes with the increase in trading hours.

Things to be considered before adapting the changes

Before any stock exchange decides to adapt the new timings some of the things it has to consider are;

• It has to update the volatility. Volatility is one of the measures taken for risk management. As of now it is calculated five times during trading for a day.
• Stock exchanges can decide upon having multiple trading sessions
• SEBI has said that the technology used by brokerages may need up gradation
• The timings are increased and hence there will be variation in volatility. If the affect is adverse then the traders may need to put up higher margins.

Benefits of Increased Trading Hours

• There will be increase in the intraday trading.
• Trading can happen in co-ordination with many of the stock markets of the world.
• Increase in the volumes of trading. Brokerage charges will also increase and hence the government revenues also increase.
• Retail investors will get sufficient time to think on their strategies. Not only retail investors even the FII’s can react to the current global events.
• Most of the Asian markets open before BSE & NSE and they are able to attract some of the foreign investment. Now with the Indian markets opening early it is expected that they will be able to attract the investors.
• SGX Nifty is NSE Nifty which is traded at stock market of Singapore ie SGX and it opens two hours earlier to Indian market as of now. As a result of this the volumes had reduced in NSE.
• Indian derivatives are listed and traded in many markets outside India, so with the increase of trading hours will help fair price discovery for them.
• Stock market reacts to the breaking or the current news and based upon the news it changes. With the increase of trading hours more time is provided to the market which may take either way go up or go down.
• One more advantage of increased trading is that there will be increased viewership and hence increase in advertisement.
• Previously trading began at 9:55 am and went on till 3:30 without any break in-between. With the increase of trading hours the traders can take a break in-between and reform the strategies.

Disadvantages of Increased Trading Hours

• The analysts will have to improve their efficiency and will have to frame out as to what will be the behavior of the market with the increase in the trading hours.
• There will be increased pressure on the traders including FII’s, banks, institutions etc.
• When there is increase in the working hours there will also be increase in the stress levels and hence brokerage charges or commission which will lead to increase in the overall operational cost.
• The stock markets don’t need any improvement in infrastructure if they adhere to new timings it is the brokerage houses, brokers, banks. Institutions who will have to improve the infrastructure, hire more men to handle the process.
• The markets of other countries are also trading for 5 to 6 hours but they have an hour lunch break in-between so that brokers can rethink on their strategies whereas no such thing has been proposed by SEBI. 

Whatever may be the reason but this directive by SEBI has received a mixed response from the stock market neither everyone is happy nor everyone is sad. The brokers and the retail investors are worried about the price stability and many other factors. However if the brokers it’s up to the stock market to decide the new timings. If everything goes as planned then there will be increase in volumes, more intraday trading, and more inflow of capital from foreign investors, this will help to redirect more flow of money into the financial system.

.

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Daily Market Tips

RANBAXY

Execution Price Range                                        Stop Loss                            Target
Buy Between Rs 420 to 430                              418                                        440

COLPAL (COLGATE PALMOLIV)

Execution Price Range                                       Stop Loss                               Target
Buy Between Rs 680 to 690                              677                                           702

DRREDDY

Execution Price Range                                     Stop Loss                                    Target
Buy Between Rs 1095 to 1115                            1085                                        1145

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USD/INR DAILY

Dollar December futures opened the day at 46.30 and closed at 46.56 levels registering a gain of 26 paisa during the day. Nifty fell by 102 points or 2.01% to close at 5005 levels. International rather than domestic factors were primarily responsible for movement of USDINR pair. Initially it was fall in Chinese stock markets on news that Chinese top banks will have to raise capital to meet swelling loan demand. Chinese banks which have one of the

largest Non Performing Assets were asked by its regulator to estimate potential deficits in 2010 based on their own loan forecast as well as adhere to capital ratio targets. Secondly it was news of Dubai’s proposal to delay debt repayment that rattled the equity markets and lead to rise in Dollar Index. Dubai world, the government investment company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities has asked all creditors for a “standstill” agreement as it negotiates to extend maturities. Dollar index recovered from its fall witnessed on Wednesday and was trading at 75.118 levels. USDINR will be bullish for today riding on surge in dollar index. 46.80 will act as a crucial level for the pair above which pair can touch 47.00 levels.

Yesterday Market Summary

Last trading day: Thursday, 26 November

Weak global cues and F&O expiry saw a selloff today and the market ended weak. But it clocked huge volumes, the second highest market turnover and highest ever F&O turnover at Rs 1.59 lakh crore. Sensex shut shop at 16854, down 344 points and Nifty at 5005, down 102 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1.21% and BSE Smallcap index was down 0.98%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 320 against declines of 957 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma while losers wereTata Power, RIL, ICICI Bank and Reliance Capital.   

Daily Market Tips

INDIAN OIL CORP (IOC)

Execution Price Range                                  Stop Loss                                        Target
Buy Between Rs 292 to 299                         290                                                  308

DIVISLAB

Execution Price Range                                   Stop Loss                                        Target
Buy Between Rs 590 to 600                         580                                                    625

JPASSOCIATE

Execution Price Range                                      Stop Loss                                     Target
Sell Between Rs 224 to 230                              233                                                215

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USD/INR DAILY

Dollar continued its fall against the Rupees as dollar index fell amid stronger American economic data. Dollar December futures fell to 46.30 levels after opening at 46.40 yesterday. Indian equity markets rose with Nifty closing 17.60 points up at 5108 as a falling dollar index lead to bullish sentiments. Dollar index which had breached 75 level mark yesterday fell further and was quoting at 74.388 levels in early morning trades on
Thursday. Positive U.S economic data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday was the key reason that triggered this fall. Personal Income rose by 0.2% as against market expectation of rise of 0.1%. Personal Spending also rose by 0.7% against 0.5% previously. Jobless claims which have been rising for some time fell and was quoted at 466K against 505K previously. University of Michigan Confidence also increased and it stood at 67.4 against expectation of 66.0. In domestic bond markets, the yields of 10 year benchmark bond fell below 7.20% and was quoting at 7.18% yesterday. For today we expect USDINR to fall further with 46.05 acting as crucial support. In medium term we expect USDINR to touch Rs.45.00/USD.

Yesterday Market Summary

Last trading day: Wednesday, 25 November

 It was a mildly choppy but relatively quiet day of trade as market closed in the positive despite some profit booking. Sensex shut shop at 17198, up 67 points and Nifty at 5108, up 17 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.01% and BSE Smallcap index was down 0.16%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 546 against declines of 714 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included BPCL, GAIL and Hero Honda while losers were DLF, Suzlon and Unitech. 

Daily Market Tips

MARUTI

Execution Price Range                                   Stop Loss                             Target
Buy Between Rs 1592 to 1608                     1582                                     1638

HIND PETRO (HPCL)

Execution Price Range                                    Stop Loss                           Target
Buy Between Rs 345 to 350                           342                                        359

HDIL (HOUSING DEV & INFRA)

Execution Price Range                                  Stop Loss                               Target
Sell Between Rs 340 to 345                         348                                               331

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USD/INR DAILY

Dollar fell on Tuesday as the critical level of 46.45 was breached by the currency pair indicating bearishness. USDINR near month futures opened the day at 46.65 and closed near lows at 46.40. Along with the dollar, the stocks market also showed correction with Nifty correcting by 13 points to close at 5090 levels. Ample liquidity in the system saw recovery in Nifty which was down by 50 points during intraday in yesterday’s trading session. The GDP data of America was unchanged as world’s largest economy rose by 2.8% as expected by the markets. However fall in Personal Consumption could hamper growth in coming months and is being viewed as a concern. Personal consumption fell by 2.9% from 3.4% previously. However sentiments remained positive with consumer confidence rising to 49.5 from 47.7 previously. The net effect of these data was fall in dollar index. Dollar index fell below 75 levels to 74.96 levels indicating continuation of money flow in asset classes across the globe. For today we expect a gap down opening of USDINR with 46.20 acting as a key support. In medium term we expect pair to touch 45.00 in coming months.

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Yesterday Market Summary

Last trading day: Tuesday, 24 November

Weak global cues saw a choppy and slightly weak session for our market that closed in the negative. Sensex shut shop at 17131, down 49 points and Nifty at 5090, down 13 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.52% and BSE Smallcap index was up 0.36%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 600 against declines of 663 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Bharti, Maruti and BPCL while losers were Jindal Steel, Tata Steel and IDFC.

The market is moving in a narrow Nifty range of 4500-5000 and consolidating, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The market is spending time and making a base for itself to then run up higher, he adds. Once Nifty crosses levels of 4500-5110, it is likely to give large moves in either direction, he feels. Buy auto, technology, banking, pharma and FMCG stocks on dips and avoid infra, realty and capital goods stocks, he says. Buy Maruti with a target of Rs 1740, he adds.

Daily Trading Calls

HCLTECH

Execution Price Range                       Stop Loss                   Target
Buy Between Rs 340 to 345              336                              356

HINDUNILVR

Execution Price Range                        Stop Loss                     Target
Buy Between Rs 278 to 282                   276                           288

ORCHIDCHEM

Execution Price Range                      Stop Loss                         Target
Buy Between Rs 175 to 179               172                                   187

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USD/INR DAILY

Dollar fell on Monday as equity market continued their bull run and dollar index fell leading to buying witnessed across major asset classes. USDINR near month futures opened the day at 46.58 nearly 9 paisa down from previous close of 46.67 and closed the day at 46.52. The reason for this was attributed to rise in Nifty which closed 51 points up at 5103 points. In international news, dollar index fell as sale of existing U.S homes rose last month to the highest level since February 2007. Existing Home Sales rose to 6.10 million from expectation of 5.70 millions indicating positive sentiments in the markets. Today all eyes will be set on GDP data of U.S. due to be released in the evening. American economy is expected to rise by 2.8% against 3.5% previous month. Any figures above expectation will lead to bullish sentiments in equities, commodities and currency markets. In domestic markets Liquidity continued to grow as Money supply (M3) which comprises of currency in circulation, bank deposits and money invested in other saving plans grew 17.8% in past two weeks to Rs.51.7 trillion. A close below 46.45 will change the weekly trend of USDINR and one can expect pair to touch 46.00. In Intraday 46.30 will act as a crucial support while 46.65 will act as a key resistance.

                             Pivot         Support 1     Support 2      Resistance 1       Resistance 2
Spot                    46.5067     46.3883         46.2917         46.6033            46.7217
Nov. Future          46.5158    46.4367        46.3458          46.6067           46.6858

Yesterday Market Summary

Last trading day: Monday, 23 November

 It was a fantastic day for our market that built on its gains and closed higher also thanks to positive global cues. Sensex shut shop at 17180, up 158 points and Nifty at 5103, up 51 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.44% and BSE Smallcap index was up 0.84%. BSE oil and gas index was up nearly 3% (RIL helped this index and it traded higher on news of acquiring Dutch company Lyondellbasell). The market breadth was positive with advances at 729 against declines of 541 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers includedHCL Technologies, GAIL and Cipla while losers wereBharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and JP Associates. 

The market consolidation seems over and Nifty is headed higher to 5350, says Sandeep Bhardwaj of Tower Capital on CNBC TV18. Nifty could make new highs by December with a target of 5550 by the year end, he adds.   

Use fall in EMs and commodities as an opportunity to buy, says Adrian Mowat of JP Morgan on CNBC TV18. Interest rates in India may remain at current levels through 2010, he feels. Dollar strength may lead to short-term fall, he says. Don't see very high earnings revision in India, he says. Correction in 2010 to be more aggressive, he adds. 

Daily Market Tips

SBIN (STATE BANK OF INDIA)

Execution Price Range                       Stop Loss                           Target
Buy Between Rs 2320 to 2340          2315                                    2360

DIVISLAB

Execution Price Range                       Stop Loss                            Target
Buy Between Rs 560 to 570               555                                      585

ICICIBANK

Execution Price Range                       Stop Loss                            Target
Buy Between Rs 890 to 900                  884                                    918

MTT Technical Calls

HDFC LTD

Execution Price Range                       Stop Loss                             Target
Buy Between Rs 2790 to 2815            2770                                   2870

RANBAXY

Execution Price Range                      Stop Loss                                   Target
Buy Between Rs 418 to 424                  413                                     438

USD/INR DAILY

Dollar Stayed in a sideways range on Friday as Indian equity markets rebounded from lows after the rise witnessed in dollar index. Dollar near month contract opened the day at 46.78 and closed at 46.67 witnessing a fall of 11 paisa. Dollar index rose on Friday as the benchmark touched 75.88 from opening of 75.20, leading to correction witnessed in asset classes across the globe. However Indian equity markets recovered from day’s low and closed 63 points up at 5052 points. In domestic news, bond yield’s continued to be under pressure after government sold bonds at yields lower than expected. The benchmark 10 year yield was quoted at 7.22% from 7.25% previously. In international news, the dollar fell against the Euro in early Monday morning trades for the first time in three days on speculation that Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus measures in place and ensure interest rate remains low. Speaking of today 46.95 will act as a key resistance for the pair while 46.45 will be a crucial support.

Day Trading Techniques....!!

Anyone can become a day trader but not everyone can make money out of it. Day trading is suitable for only those who wish to speculate on the stock market. Generally day traders say that day trading not only gives you the opportunity to make money, but also to lose. No matter whether you are a full time employee or part time employee, you can trade in stocks and enjoy the benefit. Stock market provides you an opportunity to use your knowledge of every-day events and convert them into profits.

 

12 Techniques for Day Trading

Following techniques will help you to become a successful intraday trader. Following the techniques are more important than understanding it.

 

• Fix a target price
• Wait for the buy/sell price to initiate the call
• Always fix Stop Loss
• Take expert Advice
• Analyze the tips carefully
• Wait, Watch and Trade
• Don't Overtrade
• Always follow Market trend
• Wait for an opportunity
• Don’t expect too much
• Confirm the buying & selling volumes
• Don’t get Panic

Fix a target price

Always fix a target price while trading. If you don’t have a target price, the greediness will make you to lose the entire capital in the stock market. Stock market is such a place it can fluctuate to any level. A fair increase in the price of a particular stock may give you a feel that the price will increase further but in the very next moment it may fall down drastically. 

 

For example; Buy Siemens at Rs.500, target Rs. 530 and stop loss is Rs. 495.

In this case you have to buy Siemens stock at Rs. 500 and sell it when it touches Rs.530 so that you can make a profit of Rs. 30. If you hold the share after it achieve the target, there is a possibility that the stock price may come dawn drastically after touching a certain limit. In this case you will lose all your profit and capital because of greediness. So fixing a target price is very important for traders.

 

Wait for the buy/sell price to initiate the call

Before trading in stock market you should fix the buy price and sell price. You should execute the trade only if the stock touches that particular level. For example, if the call is like, buy Unitech at Rs.80 target Rs. 85 and stop loss at Rs. 78. You should not buy below this price; only buy at Rs.80 or slightly higher. Because the given buy price may be the resistance price, if it breaks then share price goes up or else it may not go up. So always buy at given target price.

 

Always fix a Stop Loss

It is very important to maintain a stop loss while trading. This will help you in minimizing the loss in case the stock price is moving is the unfavourable direction. Assume that the share you bought falls down drastically, in this case you may end up with huge loss. But stop loss will help you to restrict your loss to a certain limit.

 

Take expert Advice

Stock market is a very risky place for a fresher lack of knowledge is very dangerous and it will make you to lose huge money. It is always better to do trading or investing by taking the advice and suggestions of an expert who has proper knowledge about the market. IndianMoney.com is providing accurate trading calls for its subscribers.

Analyze the tips carefully

No one is perfect in stock trading; no one can be a master in stock market. So do not blindly trade on the tips given by any one. Before trading observe that stock, check the volume, whether they are increasing or decreasing and then take a decision on your trade. 

 

Wait, Watch and Trade

Do not rush into the market without a proper analysis. Wait, watch and trade. Verify the market direction and place the order because most of the stock-tips do not work if market direction changes. Make sure and confirm all your strategies like resistance and support levels and then plan to trade.

 

Don't Overtrade

One of the most important things that all traders should keep in mind is that do not over trade. Never put all your money in stock, most of the brokers provide margin amount but it is up to you how to make use of this margin amount. It means if you have Rs.100000 in your demat account, you can trade for more than Rs.100000. But before trading you should have a fair idea about how much you can trade, how much you can afford to lose etc.

Always follow Market trend

Always trade with market trend and don’t move against market direction. Don’t short sell, if the market is going up and don’t buy if the market is falling down. Give more importance to market trends than individual perceptions.

 

Wait for an opportunity

If you are not sure about market movement then wait for an opportunity and don’t trade vigorously. It is always better to wait instead of losing money.

 

Don’t expect too much

Greediness will end up in losing all the money. So don’t expect too much from stock market, try to be happy in whatever profit you make. If you try to grab too much from market, the market will grab all your money. Remember that you are doing day trading so square off your positions with appropriate profit instead of waiting for big profit.

 

Confirm the buying & selling volumes

Before buying a stock check out the buying and selling volumes. If buying volume is increasing then the stock may go up and if the selling volume is increasing the stock price may come down.

 

Don’t get Panic

Don’t allow sentiments to rule you. If that is the case you are going to lose all your money in the market. During the day market might go up and dawn but don’t change your decisions continuously. Have a clear plan about the day and start trading. 

Weekly Market Summary

Last trading day: Friday, 20 November

•  It was a mildly volatile week that ended in the positive. Experts feel Nifty is likely to stay in a range of 4900-5150 for some time and if it crosses crucial resistance of 5080 then it is headed higher. This week's decent figures were: Sensex and Nifty both up almost 1%.BSE Midcap index was up 1%, BSE Smallcap index up 1.5% over the week. BSE Metal index was up 3.75%, BSE Auto index up 2.3%, BSE IT index up 2.2%, BSE FMCGindex up 1.75%.  
• 
  
•  It was a busy day on Dalal Street, gap down opening, choppy and then a smart close. Our market gained strength post noon from European markets and then moved up sharply and ended with gains. Banking, metal and oil & gas stocks helped the market rally today. Sensex shut shop at 17021, up 236 points and Nifty at 5052, up 63 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 1.12% and BSE Smallcap index was up 0.43%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 735 against declines of 537 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included ACC, SAIL and Hindalco while losers were Suzlon, Reliance Capital and Reliance Power.  
• 
  
•  There will be volatility next week ahead of F&O expiry, but if Nifty is able to close above 5080 then another 150-200 points rally is possible, says Mitesh Thacker, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Next week one could see Nifty around 5180-5250, he adds. ExitSuzlon at Rs 80, he adds.  
• 
  
• The corrections in the market have been short and shallow, says Deven Choksey of KR Choksey, on CNBC Awaaz. Till the dollar does not strengthen there will be liquidity in the system and market, he feels. Market is likely to move in a Nifty range of 4900-5150, he says. Once it breaks down or out of this range will its direction be clear, he adds. Bajaj Hindustan is his top pick in sugar for short-term gains. 

Daily Market Tips

SBIN

Execution Price Range                         Stop Loss                  Target
Sell Between Rs 2275 to 2285              2300                           2240

ORCHID CHEM

Execution Price Range                        Stop Loss                       Target
Buy Between Rs 168 to 172               166                                   178

UNITECH

Execution Price Range                        Stop Loss                       Target
Sell Between Rs 80 to 84                      86                                  74

USD/INR DAILY

Dollar rose against the Rupee yesterday as selling pressuer was witnessed in equity markets the world over. Dollar near month futures opened the day at 46.35 and closed at 46.67 after Nifty fell by 65 points or 1.30% to close at 4989 points. Dollar index rose against other currencies as the benchmark touched 75.42 levels. The major reason for rise in Dollar index was fall witnessed in Euro and Pound on concerns that Britain’s bank will disclose more credit losses. Britain’s budget deficit in October was worst for the month since records began in 1993 as the recession destroyed tax revenue and welfare cost surged. However unemployment continued to remain a concern for the American economy as Jobless claims rose to 505K from expectation of 504K. In domestic news bond yields declined to 7.25% from 7.27% previously as liquidity concerns eased in the economy. Reduced government debt sales also added to the sentiments resulting in fall in yields. For today 46.85 will be a critical resistance for the pair. In downside we advise shorts to be created only below 46.45 levels.


                     Pivot                Support 1            Support 2               Resistance 1           Resistance 2
Spot             46.5860           46.4777              46.2616                   46.8021               46.9104
Nov. Future 46.5758           46.4467              46.2233                  46.7992                46.9283