First Morning Technical Call_30092011

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX Nifty has sustained Gapped-up (4879-4905) for 3days, Nifty made double bottom around 4905 & 4906 and rallied to close positive. Today is last day of the month, quarter and half year which could keep market volatile towards close. Nifty holding 4970 is important for rally to continue, while on higher side 5100 is very strong resistance to cross. Nifty 5180-4800 has been range for 2months till this range is not breached on closing basis trade the range effectively. ADAG group stock are facing selling pressure as report suggest, 3 Reliance ADAG executives in Tihar may turn approvers: CBI. Investor can preferably use rallies to reduce position as result & festival season may give better opportunity and most of Global market also looks weak on charts.

 

 

§  Sensex- Sensex is holding Gap-up (16209-16282) and is trading within the Gap-down(17000-16833) and Gap-up levels so till 17k is not crossed on upside or 16200 is not breached on downside, now market can trade in broader range of 16200-17000. Today weekend closing and Monday host of data from Auto sales, HSBC PMI data and Cement production would determine direction of the market and 12th October INFY result would start result season. So having cash would give better chances.

 

Technical Calls:

 DIVISLAB-Rs.744 -Stock is trading in a channel and chances of stock making upper end of the channel Rs.780 and breaking above to target Rs.800 looks possibility. Stock has been holding 200DMA Rs.703 and now comfortably trades above 20DMA Rs.727 and this creates chances of stock breaching 100DMA Rs.761.

 

TATAMETALI-85, Stock has formed Cup & handle formation and stock breaking above Rs.90 which is triple top would target Rs.105. Stock in the year 2011 has corrected from Rs.148 to Rs.70 and after making double bottom formation now stock has recovered well on higher volumes.

 

 Technical View: Market Fancied stock JUBILANTFOODS-BATAINDIA-VIPIND-TTKPRESTIGE showing early weakness Time to be Cautious.

 JUBILANTFOODS-824, Stock after making high of Rs.1021 on 06/September has corrected to low of Rs.812 almost 20% cut from the top. Stock now trades below 20DMA Rs.909 & 100DMA Rs.847 and on lower side Rs.713 which is 200DMA can be supportive. BATAINDIA Breaking Rs.600 Caution is advised.

www.nangakaro.com

First Morning Technical Call_29092011

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX Nifty opened gap-up but failed to sustain above 5000 levels in the absence of any following buying interest. Nifty till gap-up created on 27th Sept(4879-4905) is not closed then rally may continue towards 4980-5000 levels. Whereas if Nifty breaches the psychological 4875 levels then selling towards 4835 levels can be seen. Today being Derivatives Settlement day volatility may remain intact in the market, one should have cautious approach while trading. The stocks which are already corrected by more than 10% in this settlement may give further downside hence one should avoid weak stock which may correct more Most of the Metal stocks look weak JSWSTEEL, SAIL, TATASTEEL, STER, SESAGOA, HINDALCO along with LT can be best avoided.

 

§  Sensex- Sensex closed above the convergence of very short term moving averages and sustaining above 16700 levels may target towards 17050 levels. Being the Derivative settlement day, Quarterly and half yearly closing with just 2 trading days left so NAV propping by funds could be possible which normally gives exit. Whereas if Sensex fails to hold 16300 levels then selling may get intensified and it may fill the recent gap (16289-16051).

 

Technical Calls:

 ARVIND(Close 98) The stock is trading near 52 weeks high levels with around 24% price gain in this Sept expiry. Sustaining the current levels may give further 6-8%% up move towards 103-105 in coming days. Counter is continuously making higher highs on daily, weekly and monthly charts indicating strength in it.

 

EDUCOMP(Close: 227) The stock has formed base around 200 levels and stock is making higher top higher bottom formation on daily charts which indicates strength in the counter. The stock may target 250-260 levels in near term and looks attractive in terms of Risk-Reward.

 

 

 Technical View: Weak Stock heading towards Derivative settlement

JSWSTEEL-570 CAUTION ADVISED: The stock is trading below its all moving averages and making lower lows on weekly charts indicating weakness in it. Counter trading below 560 levels open for 520-510 levels in few trading sessions. One should exit the long leveraged position in any pullback.

 

www.nangakaro.com

Derivatives Strategist 26 September 2011

Market Outlook

 

After a gap down opening, Nifty future took support around 4820 levels and seen a pullback rally towards 4935 levels. Market was unable to hold higher levels and again fell down to 4870-4865 levels. On option front, maximum Call OI is at 5200 followed by 5100 and 5000 strike while maximum Put OI is at 4800 strike. If Nifty future remains below 4900 levels then selling pressure may continue towards 4800 levels. If it sustains above 4900 then only a pullback may be seen towards 4950-5000 levels.

 

Derivatives Calls : Buy Bhartiartl and Biocon

www.nangakaro.com

--
Thanks & Regards
Narendra Yadav

First Morning Technical Call_26092011

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX S&P CNX Nifty has closed below 4900 after gap of 18trading days, for the day 4920 & 4970 is important resistance on higher side. Nifty failing to cross 4920 then selling pressure towards 4840 & 4780 become possible. On weekly charts after Nifty breaking down from Descending Triangle failed to cross 5177 which was previous support now has become strong resistance. Weekly basis Nifty has made double top around 5169 and corrected 4.26% this week. Nifty 200Week SMA 4816, before which market has taken support, 4720 is 19months low breaching these levels then 4500-4350 becomes support on downside. Nifty after 5weeks of correction saw 3weeks of rally to correct again as Strong Dollar, Weak global market, 2G scam taking new twist is making political condition more fluid and now big sell-off in commodity market would bring selling pressure in equity market to meet margin calls.

 

 

 

§  Sensex- Has taken exact support of 16052 which is 200Weekly Moving average and any close below this level could trigger fresh selling as Sensex has closed 4weeks low after 3 weeks of positive close negating the short term rally and Inv.Head & shoulder formation. 15765 has been lowest in 22months can be tested if we move below 16k and if recovery in this week fails above 16620 then we could have one more worst week as we head towards derivative settlement.

 

Technical Calls:

 EICHERMOTOR-1602, Stock has closed @ highest ever on weekly basis and has been making regular all time high, trading above all major moving averages. Stock has given good weekly break-out above Rs.1450 and now stock looks good to give 8-10% returns from current levels. Keeping in mind current market scenario use dips to buy and hold with adequate stop loss.

 

ACC-Rs.1069 -Stock has closed @ 20weeks highest level after making a rounding bottom on weekly and daily chart and any fresh move can take the stock to Rs.1144 which is 15months high. Stock trades above all major averages 20DMA Rs.1038, 100DMA Rs.999 & 200DMA Rs.1019.

 

 Technical View: Break-down below 2000

HEROMOTORCORP-Rs.2037 Stock has formed Tower Top formation on daily charts and closed below 20DMA Rs.2127 now support would be 100DMA Rs.1886 & 200DMA Rs.1778. Weekly charts also show trend reversal and with follow-on selling pressure where support comes around Rs.1850 on lower side.

www.nangakaro.com

Fundamental Weekly Wrap

Outlook

 

Our markets are reacting to the global situation in US and Europe.

 

In addition to this our markets have also started discounting the fears of weak Q2 September 2011 results on not very encouraging advance tax data and also data showing heavy selling by foreign funds have started hitting the sentiments adversely.

 

The department of telecommunications (DoT) is all set to levy heavy penalties totaling Rs 200 crore on telecom companies Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications and Idea Cellular, though for different reasons. The paperwork has been completed and is awaiting the return of the telecom secretary and the telecom minister, both of whom are currently overseas.

 

Banks, NBFCs are allowed to sponsor infra debt funds which will accelerate and enhance the flow of long term debt in infrastructure funds.

 

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and BP Plc may need three-four years to raise output from India's biggest gas field because the reservoir is harder to tap than previously estimated, may impact the stock price performance.

 

The Supreme Court's ban on mining and transporting iron ore from Bellary district in Karnataka since end-July as well Chitradurga and Tumkur districts,  has been impacting the steel stocks like JSW steel, Jindal Steel and also Sesa Goa which may show not so encouraging Q2 results as volume may get impacted. 

www.nangakaro.com

Weekly Derivatives Strategiest Note

Weekly Market Outlook

 

 

In the previous week Nifty future failed to cross 5170 levels then witnessed sharp sell off towards 4800 levels. Market sentiment is in pressure and any negative cues from Global indices may attract fresh short at these levels, Now if it fails to hold 4900 levels then pullback may end and market may further go down. If Nifty future sustains above 4900 mark then only a pullback rally may be seen towards 5050-5100 levels led by short covering activity, but if it fails to hold 4900 mark then momentum may fizzle out and market may again go down towards 4700 - 4600 levels to retest recent bottom. Those who are holding the long position can go for Bear put spread if Nifty remains below 4900 levels, by buying 4900 strike put and selling 4700 strike put or one can simply go long on 4800 put to hedge the long position or portfolio.

www.nangakaro.com

Daily Fundamental Snippets - 22/09/2011

OUTLOOK

 

Today all global markets are in red and following them we may see our markets also opening in red.

 

After the Fed meet which could not boost up the investor sentiments US market started to show selling pressure across the board. The U.S. House of Representatives unexpectedly defeated a bill that would fund the federal government past September 30 on Wednesday as dozens of Republicans broke with their party to push for deeper spending cuts.

 

On domestic front tax man is worried as 1 in every 5 top 100 firms pay lower advance tax levy in Q2 which shows that Q2 results expecttaions are also not very encouraging.

 

There is no positive news from any of the economy which may support the markets now and no trigger in coming days.There needs to be clarity on many issue globally and on the domestic front. The only next event is the earnings season which will start from next month. 

 

We continue to remain cautious on markets.

www.nangakaro.com

Derivatives Strategist 22 September 2011

Market Outlook

 

After a gap down opening, Nifty future remained in a narrow range of 30-40 points and closed below 5150 levels. On option front, maximum Call OI is at 5300 followed by 5200 strike while maximum Put OI is now shifted to 5000 strike. If Nifty future sustains above 5175 levels then it may move up towards 5220-5250 levels. On downside if it fails to hold 5100 levels, then selling pressure may get intensified in the market towards 5000 levels.

Derivatives Calls : Sell LT and buy Biocon

www.nangakaro.com

First Morning Technical Call_22092011

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX Nifty yesterday could not able to sustain the higher levels @5170 which is the neckline of Inverse Head & Shoulder formed on daily charts. This juncture is critical area for the next directional move if Nifty sustains or gives closing above these levels then only upside movement may be seen whereas if it fails to hold 5120 levels then further selling may get intensified in the market towards 5060-5020 levels.After the Fed meet which could not boost up the investor sentiments US market started to show selling pressure across the board. Advance Tax numbers of the top 100 companies are also disappointing this Quarter which is almost halved to 9.9% as compare to 19% in April-June. Capital Goods stocks are already under pressure and now Auto stock shave started to show weakness.

Sensex yesterday witnessed choppy session ahead of Fed meet announcements with trading in range of 1700-17190.Sensex could not able to cross the neck line of the Inverse Head & shoulder formed on daily charts and closed below 17200 levels.Now it has next support @16709 which is the low made on 9th Sept. If Sensex fill the Gap(16889-16865) then selling may get intensified towards the next support levels.

Technical Calls:

SINTEX-151, Stock has made irregular bottom making higher low, now higher high should lead to levels above Rs.163 and stock looks very good to target Rs.174 on higher side if Rs.144 on closing basis is held. Stock has been in trading range this time if Rs.175 above close is seen then 200-215 also could become possible target. Good stock for traders as it moves very good in a range.

GICHOUSING-89, stock has made Adam & eve bottom which indicates very good bottom formation has been made in the stock. ADAM & EVE bottom is a V-shape recovery followed by U-shape recovery after making almost a double bottom. Stock can give 8-10% returns in very short term and medium term Rs.102-110 can also become target.


Technical View:

OPTOCIRCUIT: The stock is looking weak with forming Lower Top Lower Bottom formation on daily charts. Counter is seeing selling pressure with volume activity indicating weakness.The stock trading below all moving averages i.e. 200DMA @279 and 100DMA@271 levels. It has next major support around 225 levels if it fails to hold these levels then further selling may be seen towards 210 levels in coming weeks.

www.nangakaro.com

Cummins India - Value Pick - Bonus Update

Stock Update – Corporate Action

 

 Cummins India - Accumulate                  Adjusted  Price    439                                                 Adjusted  Target   621 

Cummins India Ltd had announced on 12th Sep, 20011 that 21 Sep, 2011 has been fixed  as Record Date for the purpose of issue of fully paid Bonus Equity Shares in the ratio of  2:5.

We maintain our positive view and recommend to Accumulate for 18-24 months. Stock is  now quoting at Ex-Bonus hence our adjusted target price is 621.

Recommend Price (Cum-Bonus)             = 614 Rs.

Adjusted Reco. Price (Ex - Bonus)         = 614* 5/ 7= 439 Rs.

Therefore

Original Target Price ( Cum – Bonus)             = 870 Rs.

Adjusted Target Price ( Ex-Bonus )               = 870*5/7 =621 Rs.

www.nangakaro.com

Daily Fundamental Snippets - 21/09/2011

OUTLOOK

 

Today global markets are in negative terrain and our markets may see dull opening for the day.

 

The weakness in the rupee has helped the markets yesterday, but the outlook will depend on the news flow from the global markets such as the FOMC meeting and the Greece deadline.

 

The market will watch out for cues from a two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve that ends on today will also have bearing on teh sentiments in coming days.

 

The next big catalyst culd come from positive policy action or some softening of inflatrion. Corpoarte earnings next month will also be a key to near term direction for the markets.
We continue to remain cautious on markets.

 

Our value Pick Zylog Systems initiated at 418 for a target of 519. The stock was moving yesterday mainly on weakness of rupee which is beneficial for the IT stocks and which offsets the concernss of lower revenue beacuse of worries in global markets. Zylogs majority of the revenue comes from global sales which is mainly in dollar terms. The company is also among top 500 tehcnology innovators across America.
Promoters have also incresaed thier holding in August which shows business confidence in the company. We have a positive outlook for the company. 

 

 

 

www.nangakaro.com

Derivatives Strategist 21 September 2011

Market Outlook

 

Nifty future recovered loss of last two trading sessions and seen strong up move led by short covering towards 5165 levels. On option front, maximum Put OI is now shifted at 5000 strike. If Nifty future sustains above 5175 levels then it may move up towards 5220-5250 levels. On downside if it fails to hold 5100 levels, then selling pressure may get intensified in the market towards 5000 levels. Now 4900 levels would be immediate strong support for the market.

Derivatives Calls : Buy Bataindia and Lupin Labs

 

www.nangakaro.com

First Morning Technical Call_21092011

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX Nifty yesterday witnessed sharp pullback rally by taking support around 5040 levels and fast momentum was seen above 5100 levels toward the 5150 levels which is also the immediate hurdle for the market being the trend line from 5204 to 5169 levels. Nifty is also making Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern formation on daily charts and the neck line lies around 5170-5180 levels, sustaining above these levels may target 5250 or above levels in coming days. Whereas if it fails to hold these levels then it would attract fresh selling in the market towards 5100-5080 levels. Capital Goods stocks especially BHEL & LT look weak on charts as even the market rallied from lower levels these stocks did not witness any buying interest indicating weakness.

Sensex yesterday closed the gap(16889-16865) which was created on Monday with increased volumes. Now Sensex has immediate resistance around 17200 levels which was the previous top made on 8th Sept sustaining these levels may give breakout of Head & Shoulder pattern and may rally towards 17650 levels. Whereas if it fails to hold 17200-17250 levels then fresh selling may be seen towards 16800-16700 levels.One should have cautious approach at this juncture and trade accordingly.

Technical Calls:

ZYLOG (Close: 433.20) The stock has given breakout with volumes after a consolidation of four months. The stocks also trading above 200Days SMA@401. Counter sustaining above 437 levels may target 455-460 levels in coming days.

GRASIM (Close: 2320) The entire cement pack is seeing buying interest and the stock looks very attractive on charts. The counter is trading above its all major moving averages i.e. 200 DMA @2288 and 100 DMA@ 2204. One can initiate long position with stop below 2280 levels and for the target of 2370 levels.


Technical View:

ENGINEERS INDIA (Close: 262.30) The stock has given volume breakout and has formed base around 250-255 levels. Counter looks attractive and it can target 100DMA@273 and 200DMA @289 levels in coming days. One can initiate long position with stop below 254 levels.

www.nangakaro.com

Daily Fundamental Snippets - 20/09/2011

Outlook

 

Most of the global indices are in negative tarrain and we may see dull opening for today.

 

There is no domestic event that the market is looking forward to. It's completely dancing to the tunes of the negative global cues.

 

Ratings agency S&P downgraded Italy and amid fears of a Greek default, as investors worried that the euro zone's debt woes will pitch the global financial system into a full-blown banking crisis.

 

After the rate hike on Friday with high inflation continuing, there is room for one more round of rate hike of 25 basis points as expected by our economist. Also the depreciating of rupee is adding concerns to the inflation and the fiscal deficit.

 

Going ahead, global events are likely to determine investors moves in the coming week. We remain cautious on the markets.

 

 

www.nangakaro.com

Derivatives Strategist 20 September 2011

Market Outlook

 

After a gap down opening, Nifty future remained in a narrow range of 5020 to 5060 levels for the entire sessions and closed below 5050 levels. On option front, maximum Put OI is at 4700 followed by 4800 strike while maximum Call OI is at 5300 followed by 5200 strike. If Nifty future sustains above 5050 levels then it may move up towards 5100-5150 levels. On downside if it fails to hold 5000 levels, then selling pressure may get intensified in the market towards 4900 levels. Now 4900 levels would be immediate strong support for the market.

Derivatives Calls : Buy BFutilities and Sell Relinfra

 

www.nangakaro.com

First Morning Technical Call

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX Nifty has made lower high-lower low compared with previous day while Nifty Futures and Sensex has Gap-down, Nifty opened @ previous day lowest level. Nifty 5065 will act as strong resistance till that level is not breached profit booking and fresh selling may emerge and below 5018, Nifty has support around 4967 which is 3days low. Metal, Banking and Capital good space is looking weak with LT-BHEL underperforming market and on charts both these stock look weak for more correction. Market after 5weeks of correction 3weeks of rally is possible, now this week if we start to correct then below weekly support of 4940 and recent double bottom support of 4911 then 4720-4500-4350 are possible lower levels. Global events- a concern of Greece is heading for default is very high added S&P Cuts Italy's Sovereign Rating, which is 3^rd largest economy in Euro zone. Global events, Weak Rupee is short term very negative Power & Steel Companies which import Coal & coke are seeing raw material prices moving higher.

 

 

§  Sensex- has gapped-down (16889-16865) which normally indicate weakness and till Gap levels not closed selling pressure would increase. Sensex has strong support around 16640 & 16530 levels breaching which 16375 is crucial levels to watch. Sensex failing to close the Gap-down in next few days and below 16375 then retesting of 15765 faster can't` be ruled out.

 

Technical Calls:

 GITANJALI-348, Stock has been outperformer for the year 2011 with 66% YTD-year till date, Stock after making 52week high of Rs.351.5 is consolidating and now again strength is seen in the stock and good break-out above previous high then 8-10% gains is possible. Stock trades above all major averages which indicate strength for the stock. Stock is in Ban period in F&O and stock already has gained 10% this month & 15% quarterly which is squeezing shorts buy in cash.

 

JPASSOCIATE-70, stock is a Major Break-out above Rs.72 only it can trade above these levels for 15-20minutes then 7-10% return would become possible. JPASSOCIATE has been outperformer in Nifty for the month of September with gains of 15%. Stock has also made Inverse Head & Shoulder formation and above Rs.72 which is a triple Top Break-out target could be Rs.80.

 

 

 Technical View: Make/Break

STERILITE-130, Stock has made lower high failing to Rs.135 on sustainable basis and normally lower low can lead to lower levels as Stock has closed near 20DMA Rs.129. Stock is trading near 28month low of Rs.120 and in short term weaker stock correct fast. Metal stocks are more cyclical and in correcting market they react faster on the downside Rs.104 is possible levels the stock can target in months to come.  

www.nangakaro.com

Reminder about your invitation from Narendra Yadav

This is a reminder that on September 8, Narendra Yadav sent you an invitation to become part of their professional network at LinkedIn. Accept Narendra Yadav's Invitation On September 8, Narendra Yadav wrote: > To: narendra.yadav.trading [narendra.yadav.trading@blogger.com] > From: Narendra Yadav [narendra.ya@gmail.com] > Subject: Invitation to connect on LinkedIn > I'd like to add you to my professional network on LinkedIn. > > - Narendra You are receiving Reminder emails for pending invitations. Unsubscribe. © 2011 LinkedIn Corporation. 2029 Stierlin Ct, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA.

Derivatives Strategist 19 September 2011

Market Outlook

 

After a gap up opening, Nifty future remained highly volatile in a range of 30-35 points and moved up towards 5150 levels. After the RBIs rate hike news, it was unable to hold higher levels and closed below 5100 levels. On option front, maximum Put OI is at 4700 strike and fresh writing seen at 5000 strike while maximum Call OI is at 5200 followed by 5300 strike. If Nifty future sustains above 5100 levels then it may move up towards 5150-5200 levels. On downside if it fails to hold 5000 levels, then selling pressure may get intensified in the market towards 4900 levels. Now 4900 levels would be immediate strong support as of now for the market.

 

Derivatives Calls : Buy IRB infra and Educomp solution

www.nangakaro.com

Fwd: First Morning Technical Call_19092011

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX Nifty holding 5060 is important for the day and crossing 5110 would be positive for market where 5170 could be possible levels. On negative side if Nifty fails to break 5100 then 5060 is major support breaking which 5020 become important. Nifty on daily charts has Inverse Head & Shoulder and any break-out above 5170 then 250-300points rally becomes possible. Nifty on Weekly basis has closed 3rd week in positive after 5weeks of correction and weekly support 4940 below which market would start fresh correction towards 4720-4500-4350 till then bear phase of rally which is very fast and swift should be played smartly. Refining margin GRM has stayed higher around $9.5 and this normally benefits standalone refiners like RELIANCE, ESSAROIL, MRPL and CHENNAIPETRO while RELIANCE and ESSAROIL benefit from weak rupee due to exports.

 

§  Sensex- holding 16750 is important to target higher with 17200 which is double top formation and 17358 above previous Gap-down would start getting filled. Sensex trading below 16837 which is opening of previous day selling pressure can be high. SENSEX 20DMA-16590, 100DMA-17926, 200DMA-18476 and 200Week MA-16065. Sensex for 5weeks of downtrend has seen 3weeks of rally this week closing would play crucial role.

 

Technical Calls:

 GLENMARK-328, stock has been trading in a range, now triangle break-out is seen which could give Rs.356 as possible target and sustaining above which even Rs.390 could be possible in the stock which benefits from weaker Rupee due to high export. Stock has closed above 20DMA Rs.322 while stock already trades above other averages 100DMA Rs.312 & 200DMA Rs.313.

 

MOIL-309, stock has closed @ highest level in 20trading days on higher volumes and in process closed above 20DMA after 36trading days, pointing to strong buying emerging @ lower level. Stock after strong listing made high of Rs.591, after which stock has been gradually coming down and made low Rs.290. Stock looks good to target Rs.340 which is 100DMA or Rs.348 which is falling trend line connecting highs.

 

 

 Technical View: Make/Break

ITC-197, Stock is trading in a triangle pattern and moving in a tight range and where Make/break is important stock below Rs.192 on closing basis is clear Break-out, while stock has to close above Rs.203 for any break-out and make new high above Rs.211.25. Stock is showing distribution pattern on charts and any break-down 8-10% correction is possible.

 

www.nangakaro.com

Fundamental Weekly Wrap

OUTLOOK

 

Investors took the 25 basis points rate hike in their stride as it was on expected lines. Experts were expecting that this would be the last rate hike from the central bank but that may not be the case. RBI said it would continue with its anti-inflationary stance as inflation is much above the comfort zone. Even global economic environment has worsened.

 

On global front Wall Street hopes for more Fed action and clear signs European leaders will follow through on their new urgency to tackle the eurozone debt crisis if US stocks are to build on their best week since early July.

 

The markets are expected to continue their volatility with lot of events happening domestically and on the global front.

 

We maintain our cautious view on the markets.

 

 

 

www.nangakaro.com

First Morning Technical Call

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX Nifty taken good support around 4970 and moved higher till 5091, for the day range would be 5040-5120 and if the range breaks on higher side 5169 which is double top formation or 5220 can also become target. Nifty to show weakness should trade below 5030 for intraday and for Negative trend 4965 (previous day low) below close only. RBI credit policy will give better sense of direction as political condition is becoming fluid. The rally in market in last few days is more speculative as FIIs and MF participation is very low, and now reports suggest ONGC FPO has also been deferred. Petrol prices are hiked due to strong dollar which can be positive for PSU Oil companies and negative for AUTO companies which has paid flat tax, added EGOM meet today on LPG Subsidy ahead of ONGC FPO.

 

§  Sensex- - holding 16540 is important to target higher with 17200 which is double top formation and 17358 above previous Gap-down would start getting filled. The advance tax for the September quarter paid by top 100 Mumbai-based companies has recorded a moderate growth of 5% at about Rs 17,224 crore (Rs 16,366 crore).

 

Technical Calls:

 REC-177, has made triple bottom around Rs.162-163 levels each time after hitting lows the stock rebounded and failed around Rs.188 & 182 this time if the stock holds Rs.170 on lower side chances of stock crossing Rs.190 and targeting Rs.210 is very high. Stock has closed above 20DMA Rs.173 while 100DMA Rs.201 & 200DMA Rs.233 could also become targets on higher side.

 

ELECON-73, stock has been moving in a sideways channel and now the stock is breaking above the channel, where almost all major averages have converged 200DMA Rs.72, 100DMA Rs.71.8 and 20DMA Rs.70.6. Stock comfortably trading above Rs.71 then Rs.82 can become target in weeks to come.

 

 Technical View: Make/Break

PSU OIL Companies- BPCL-HPCL-IOC-ONGC-GAIL-OIL-Petrol prices are hiked due to weak rupee, while Indian Brent hovering near $110 with no respite had made crude costlier by 7% in one month due to weak rupee. Today EGOM meet to reduce subsidy on LPG and if any positive move happens that would benefit Oil marketing and Subsidy sharing PSU oil companies ahead of ONGC FPO. Normally markets have corrected after large IPO/FPO so investor should take calculated risk as Government plays its cards well to attract investment after which investors are left in lurch.

www.nangakaro.com

Power - No longer Powerful

Power - No longer Powerful

 

The sector is facing lot of hurdles leading to growth pains for many of its players as well for the companies related to the industry.

 

Unless the issues are resolved or any government policy action is brought in the headwinds for the sector are to continue for some time now. The sector as a whole has been corrected downwards 36% from the Oct 2010 highs till date. Going forward the weakness in the sector is to continue.

 

Companies like NTPC, Tata Power, Adani Power and Reliance power look weak, while NHPC looks good on longer term perspective. The business model for NHPC is different with focus on hydro power generation which is a growing need of an hour as the generation capacity is skewed towards thermal power. NHPC will also not be influenced by the on going concerns of thermal segment directly. We already have coverage on the stock with a price target of Rs. 33.    

 

Berger Paints - Value Pick - BUY

 Paint Your Imagination

 Berger Paints                    Buy                                  Price    108                                                                      Target   130  

Berger Paints India (Berger) is the second largest decorative paint company in India. Company has an overall paint industry market share of ~17%.

 Company Description

Berger Paints India Limited is a paint manufacturing company. The Company's products consist of interior wall coatings, exterior wall coatings, and metal and wood paints. Berger Paints India Limited was founded in 1760 and is headquartered in Kolkata, India 

 

Investment Arguments
~Lucrative Industry Outlook
~Capacity addition plans help to enhance sales
~Less vulnerable to increase in raw materials prices
~Increasing their Presence

 

~ Valuations

 

Going forward, we expect Berger to maintain the good growth momentum on the back of additional capacity along with new product offerings in premium segment and its expansion plans in south region. At CMP of 108 stock is quoting around 18x and 16x for FY 12e & FY 13e. We recommend to buy the stock at CMP for 12-15 months horizon for a target price of 130 (19.19x FY13E EPS of 6.78), giving an upside of 20% from current price.

 

www.nangakaro.com

Daily Fundamental Snippets - 14/09/2011

OUTLOOK

 

Today global markets are positive and we may see positive opening on our indices also.

 

Yesterday Banking shares gave up early gains that were spurred by talk the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may pause its 18-month long monetary policy tightening after one more rate rise this week. Industrial output growth had slumped to 3.3 percent in July as high borrowing costs crimped demand.

 

Monthly inflation data is due today and is expected to set the tone for RBI's rate decision on Friday. Also advance tax numbers may help to get some sense of the direction of the markets and set the mood for the nvestors as well.

 

There are different views on whether the RBI will raise rates or not, but it's quite possible that the peak of the cycle is around. But rates may not start falling in a hurry, with inflation being what it is.

 

We maintain our cautious stance on markets for today.

www.nangakaro.com

Derivatives Strategist 14 September 2011

Market Outlook

 

After a gap down opening, nifty future moved up towards 5040 levels but was unable to hold those levels and fell down sharply to 4900 levels. On option front, maximum Put OI is at 4700 followed by 4800 strike while maximum Call OI is at 5200 followed by 5000 strike. If Nifty future sustains above 4950 levels then it may move up towards 5020-5050 levels. On downside if it fails to hold 4900 levels, then selling pressure may get intensified in the market towards 4850-4800 levels.

 

Derivatives Calls : Buy Cairn and Sell Jswsteel

www.nangakaro.com

First Morning Technical Call_14092011

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX S&P CNX Nifty for the day range 4910-4985, breaking the range would give better sense of direction but, Nifty has to close pending partial  Gap-down (5046-5030) which is an immediate resistance on downside below 4900 then 4815 which is 200Weekly average and 4720 recent low can be important levels to watch. Shorter term Nifty 5169 double Top is important resistance added to that Gap-down(5229-5324) on 5^th August, then 100DMA 5407 and 200DMA 5554 are important levels  to be crossed by any rally. Nifty on downside breaking 200Simple Weekly average 4818 below close then 4500 & 4350 would be faster to become possible as advance tax numbers have started to flow with no major surprise as per indication. Weaker Rupee 47.56 lowest in 15months, down 8% from July peak is hurting importers and falling crude prices is negated keeping inflationary pressure high as RBI meets on 16^th and many exporters who have hedged their position would face mark to market losses.

 

 

 

§  Sensex- has closed partial Gapped-down (16830-16766), and corrected to go below previous day low making 16350 as important support breaking which, Sensex moving below previous low of 15765 is very high. Sensex 200Simple weekly average 16068 below close market correction would be fastest and 14,000 levels is not ruled out. Sensex 20DMA 16585, 100DMA 18008 and 200DMA 18513.

 

Technical Calls:

 BEML-473, has formed a triangle formation near a bottom, making higher lows and higher high could lead to levels near Rs.520. Stock would be a break-out above Rs.480 as there has been multiple top around Rs.478-479 nearly 4 times in last 6trading days and previous day volumes has been high in last 11trading session which shows inherent strength in Defense PSU.

 

TULIP-148, stock has closed @ 19trading days high on higher volume and this stock faces resistance around 154 which is 100DMA and 200DMA Rs.158. Stock has been in trading range so breaking Rs.150 it would move to higher range of Rs.165-150 so this can be good for smart traders who trade within a range on daily basis.

 

 

 

 

  Technical View:

BHEL Cmp Rs.1701, Stock has closed near 15 days low added lowest close for the stock since 14^th May/2009 is 1681 and lowest level in 28months if Rs.1660. Stock has been trading in a lower range for almost 2months and any break below 1660 then 1545 can be possible level on downside in the stock which is trading in a falling channel in weekly charts.

www.nangakaro.com

Reminder about your invitation from Narendra Yadav

This is a reminder that on September 8, Narendra Yadav sent you an invitation to become part of their professional network at LinkedIn. Accept Narendra Yadav's Invitation On September 8, Narendra Yadav wrote: > To: narendra.yadav.trading [narendra.yadav.trading@blogger.com] > From: Narendra Yadav [narendra.ya@gmail.com] > Subject: Invitation to connect on LinkedIn > I'd like to add you to my professional network on LinkedIn. > > - Narendra You are receiving Reminder emails for pending invitations. Unsubscribe. © 2011 LinkedIn Corporation. 2029 Stierlin Ct, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA.

Daily Fundamental Snippets -13/09/2011

OUTLOOK

 

The global mixed are on mixed terrain and we may see our markets opening on a flat note today.

 

It's all about Europe right now and the main question related to whether or not the politicians have the resolve or the ability to rescue Greece and whether or not the contagion spreads beyond Greece. It is quite unclear right now whether the politicians do indeed have the ability to put some sort of rescue together.

 

All other asset classes are also facing the pressure with Euro crisis heating up the dollar index is also going up. this is further putting pressure on our equity markets and other currencies also. a bubble like situation is also felt by the investors in gold  whic is anotherreason for the huge dollar demand.

 

We remain cautious on markets

 

www.nangakaro.com

Derivatives Strategist 13 September 2011

Market Outlook

 

After a gap down opening, nifty future fell down sharply towards 4900 levels and gave a small bounce towards the end of session up to 4965 levels. On option front, maximum Put OI is at 4700 followed by 4800 strike and fresh writing seen at 5000 strike while maximum Call OI is at 5200 followed by 5400 strike. If Nifty future sustains above 5000 levels then it may move up towards 5050-5100 levels. On downside if it fails to hold 4950 levels, then selling pressure may get intensified in the market towards 4900-4800 levels.

Derivatives Calls : Buy Cipla and Jain Irrigation

 

www.nangakaro.com

First Morning Technical Call

Market Outlook:

S&P CNX Nifty has broken down from Rising WEDGE with a Gap-down (5046-4985) which becomes important resistance for any rally. Nifty has made low in 8trading days and closed below 20DMA 4987, any rally will face resistance around 5000-5050 and it can be a opportunity to reduce position, below 4910 Nifty correction till 4800 & 4720 becomes possible. IIP data which can around 21months lowest level around 3.3%, weak Rupee which is 47.22 and rising Dollar Index are weakness in Indian market as Strong Dollar Index would force FIIs to move out of emerging markets. BANKNIFTY has Gapped-down (9647-9347) which indicate major weakness and levels below 8917 and 8500 can become a possibility. SBIN, AXISBANK, CANBANK, ICICIBANK, IDBI, FEDERALBANK are few banks which has Gapped-down and Caution is advised as 8-10% downside can be possible.

 

 

 

§  Sensex- after making double Top 17200 has Gapped-down (16830-16668), which has strong reversal as it comes near gap-up levels. Now if the Gap sustains then chances of Sensex moving below previous low of 15765 is very high. Sensex 200Simple weekly average 16068 below close market correction would be fastest and 14,000 levels is not ruled out. Sensex which was trading above 20DMA 16614 for 6trading days has now closed below that. Sensex failing to cross 16700 would be more negative today as on downside 16400 support has been breached.

 

Technical Calls:

 BERGERPAINT-108, Stock on Weekly charts has been forming a triangle for last 12months and now stock has broken away from a triangle formation on higher volumes. Stock looks very good to target Rs.123 which is all time high and move higher from these levels. Stock traders above all major moving averages with 20DMA Rs.101, 100DMA Rs.100 and 200DMA Rs.95.

 

ABGSHIPYARD-382, Stock has made inverse Head & Shoulder formation stock above Rs.390 can target Rs.430-445 as target for the said formation. Stock trades above all major moving averages with 200DMA Rs.372, 100DMA Rs.370 and 20DMA Rs.363. Stock has shown out performance in last 6months where Nifty has corrected 16% this stock has gained 3% with 19% outperformance this stock looks very attractive for long term investor also.

 

 

 

  Technical View: Power Stock- NTPC-TATAPOWER-ADANIPOWER-RPOWER

NTPC-TATAPOWER-ADANIPOWER-RPOWER all thermal power producer saw selling pressure with NTPC making 33Months low, TATAPOWER 28Months low and closed below Rs.1000. The Appellate Tribunal for Electricity's (APTEL) verdict on ADANI POWER, imply no hike in Power tariff and cost of higher coal prices added to that non-availability of coal Impacts these stocks, while NHPC, PTC and POWERGRID are safer bets now. NTPC can target Rs.130 & TATAPOWER Rs.830 on downside as per our technical view.

 

www.nangakaro.com