Derivatives Strategist 26th April 2013

Data Feeler: Nifty future after a gap up opening following the better global cues had volatile session ahead of Expiry day. Nifty continued to maintain its northward journey with buying seen in the last hour of trades mainly supported by Auto, HC and Oil & Gas sector stocks. Nifty future for the day, if it sustains above 5900 levels then rally may be continued towards 5950 levels whereas sustaining below 5880 levels may see profit booking in the market towards 5850-5820 levels. Looking at the option concentration data for May series, maximum put OI is concentrated at 58 00 followed by 5700 strike prices whereas maximum call OI is placed at 5900 followed by 6000 strike prices. Bank Nifty for the day it has support around 12500 levels whereas the immediate hurdle area is around 12800-13000 levels.

Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty moved down from 1.22 to 1.05 levels. Historical Volatility of Nifty moved up from 19.1 to 19.42 levels and Implied Volatility also moved down from 15.1 to 14.38 levels.

Market witnessed buying interest especially in Auto, HC, Oil & Gas, Metal, Banking, Power, PSU, CG and FMCG sector stocks whereas selling pressure was seen in IT, Tech, Realty and CD space. Nifty future closed at premium of 6 points as compared to discount of 2 points in previous trading session.

The market turnover increased by 47.33% in terms of number of contracts traded vis-à-vis previous trading day whereas in terms of rupees increased by 48.9%.

 

Derivative Calls: Buy on ULTRACEMCO and M&M.

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First Morning Technical Call 26th April 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5916): CNX Nifty gapped up on Thursday (5844.30-5853.30) and made a higher high and a higher low yesterday too as has been doing the same for the past seven trading sessions. Nifty closed above 5900 suggesting that it has now broken the short term resistance around the psychological 5900 levels. Nifty has closed above all its moving averages after 30 trading sessions and now looks good to target 6000-6100 on the upside and move towards its 52 week high levels. For the day if Nifty crosses 5950 on the upside then a rally towards 5980-6050 cannot be ruled out. Failing to cross 5980 the index could witness some profit booking till 5870-5840 levels and till such time Nifty keeps making higher highs and higher lows, the trend is likely to remain on the upside. May Month derivative contract is bit long with almost 24 trading days so traders should always follow strict stop loss levels and trailing Stop loss levels as we have seen sharp rally in last 7 days.

SENSEX (19407): Sensex closed higher yesterday as traders rolled over their positions from the April, 2013 series to the May, 2013 series. For the day, Sensex holding 19250 on the down side and crossing 19575 on the upside could be a major positive trigger for the index as this could open up possibilities of 19800-19900 in the days to come. On the flip side, the index struggling to hold onto 19250-19230 levels could see some profit taking till 19100-18900 too.

TECHNICAL CALLS 

BUY DRREDDY Rs.1992: DRREDDY has made all time high of Rs.2000 crossing previous high of Rs.1970 after gap of 60trading days with very high volume and looks very good to target Rs.2150 & 2300 on higher side. It has been trading  above all major moving averages such as 200DMA at Rs.1774, 100DMA at  Rs.1858 and 50DMA at  Rs.1836. DRREDDY is buy on any dip for 8-10% rally in next 3-4weeks.The stock has taken support at  the lower trend line support of the ANDREWS PITCHFORK around 1750 levels.

BUY HINDZINC Rs.118: HINDZINC has closed above its 50DMA Rs.117, and looks very good to target Rs.125 on higher side. Stock 2013 high Rs.143 and has corrected till 2013 low of Rs.106 made on 17^th April2013 and now sharp recovery with good volumes are seen suggesting good buying in the stock.

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News Views & Events 25th April 2013

News:

Ø       Jet Airways has agreed to sell a 24% stake to Abu Dhabi based Etihad for $369 million (Rs. 2061 Crs), valuing the Indian company at Rs.8545 Crs, a 72% premium to its market capitalisation of Rs. 4954 Crs.

Ø      Bharti Airtel will share part of its submarine cable network with Reliance Industries' telecom arm. 

Ø      India's first plant to purify sea water has run into rough weather with its foreign partner Spain's Befesa Agua suing infrastructure company IVRCL for violating the shareholder pact underpinning their joint venture. Sentimentally Negative for IVRCL

Ø      Tata Communications said it has partnered with Mercedes AMG Petronas, to deliver trackside connectivity for the team at all Formula One race locations..

Ø      Tech Mahindra has acquired a Sweden-based Type Approval Lab for undisclosed amount.

Ø      Union Bank of India will be deploying the $350 million it raised through a bond sale for lending at its international branches.

Ø      Denso Corporation has announced acquisition of 51% share in Pricol Components Ltd, a subsidiary of Pricol Ltd to produce instrument clusters for passenger vehicles in India.

Ø      Maruti Suzuki India will consider amalgamation of the company's seven wholly-owned subsidiaries with itself at the upcoming board meeting.

Ø      Jsw steel plans to bid for iron ore mining blocks in Karnataka that could go up for auction after a Supreme Court order.

Ø      Liberalising investment norms for the oil and gas sector, RBI allowed state run ONGC Videsh (OVL) and Oil India (OIL ) to invest in their incorporated overseas entities for exploration and drilling of oil and natural gas

Ø      The Bombay HC has ordered Angola-based Sanzi Commercio to stop selling whiskey using the brand name Sonate and pay Rs. 1 lakh fine to Tilaknagar Industries for infringing its trademark and copyright of its Senate brand.

Ø      BSE and NSE have identified 39 scrips to be shifted to the restricted trading category with effect from April 29, as a part of a surveillance review.

Key events for the day:

Ø      Board Meeting for Q4 Results : Bata India, Biocon, CanfinHome, Cera, Delta Corp, IDBI Bank, Idea Cellular, Jindal Steel, IBREALST, Hind Zinc, Strides Arcolabs, Rallis India, United Phosphorus, Esab, Gillette, L&T Fin, Oil Countub, PGHH &  Vesuvius.

Ø      Release of EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate.

Ø      Release of Prelim GDP in UK.

Ø      Release of USD Unemployment Claims.

 

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Derivatives Strategist 25th April 2013

Ø  Nifty future after a strong pullback run finally take some pause at higher levels with profit booking seen in selected sector stocks however index finally managed to close marginally positive. Nifty future for the day, if it sustains above 5850 levels then rally may be continued towards 5880-5900 levels whereas sustaining below 5820 levels may see profit booking in the market towards 5780-5750 levels. Looking at the option concentration data for May series, maximum put OI is concentrated at 5500 strike price and maximum call OI is placed at 5900 strike price suggesting broader range could be in between 5500-5900 levels. Bank Nifty for the day it has support around 12400 levels whereas the immediate hurdle area is around 12800 levels.

 

Ø  Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty moved up from 1.17 to 1.22 levels. Historical Volatility of Nifty moved down from 19.69 to 19.1 levels and Implied Volatility also moved down from 15.54 to 15.1 levels.

 

Ø  Nifty future saw decrease in OI by -0.4% with a rise in price by 0.17%. Market witnessed buying interest especially in HC, IT, Oil & Gas, Tech and Auto sector stocks whereas selling pressure was seen in CG, CD, Realty, Banking, PSU and Metal space. Nifty future closed at discount of 2 points as compared to discount of 2 points in previous trading session.

 

Ø  The market turnover decreased by 1.8% in terms of number of contracts traded vis-à-vis previous trading day whereas in terms of rupees decreased by 1.2%.

 

Ø  Derivative Calls: Buy on DRREDDY & RELIANCE IND

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First Morning Technical Call 25th April 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5837): CNX Nifty made double top 5844 but managed to close marginally higher on a day where Nifty traded mostly negative  ahead of the expiry for the month of April 2013, crossing 5845 then 5950 on higher side opens. Today Nifty crossing 5845 is important for targeting 5914 & 5950 on higher side while failing to cross 5810 then important support comes around 5765 & 5710 today derivative settlement would keep market volatile. Global markets have been positive and SGX Nifty pointing to higher opening and Monsoon announcement likely today could keep market buoyant. Nifty has rallied from 5477 to 5844 almost 367Points in 8trading session, so  if we don't cross 5864 on closing basis then caution is advised. Nifty is trading above 200DMA 5667 & 50DMA 5765 while marginally below 100DMA 5861.

SENSEX (19179): Sensex closed a flat after a tough day of trade on Tuesday. Today Sensex has to cross 19250 on a closing basis to support the ongoing uptrend in the short term. Failing to cross 19250 and drifting below 19040 could spell trouble for the index as people trapped on the long side would try to liquidate their positions to avert losses, as the derivatives contracts expire today.

TECHNICAL CALLS 

                              
BUY JKCEMENT Rs.259: After correcting from 369 to 242 levels the stock has formed a solid base around the 240-250 zone. Now the stock looks ready to take off towards its previous highs as there is an evident trend reversal in the stock as it is a falling trend line breakout candidate and could surpass 280-285 levels in the days to come.

BUY TALWALKARS Rs.146 : TALWALKARS has closed above its 20  DMA levels at 141.60 levels and now the stock looks good to rally towards 180 in the days to come. The stock has seen some accumulation from lower levels with good volumes in the recent past. The stock clearing the 50 DMA at 154 levels can rally smartly towards the mentioned target levels soon.

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News Views & Events 23rd April 2013

News:

Ø  The cabinet committee on investment (CCI) cleared 13 power projects and 25 oil blocks, which will provide much needed to boost to the struggling power and oil and gas sectors. Out of 20 projects, CCI cleared 13 power projects worth Rs 33,000 Crs, which were stuck due to various reasons including environmental concerns.

Ø  Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Ltd (TRIL) has received Rs 296 Crs order from the state power transmission company, Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation Limited (GETCO) for supply of 392 units of transformers.

Ø  Cadila Healthcare's board has approved the merger of Zydus Animal Health Ltd (ZAHL), Liva Healthcare Ltd (LHL) and Zydus Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ZPL) with itself.

Ø  Ultratech Cement in final talks to buy Jaypee's 2 Gujarat plans for EV of Rs 4100 Crs.

Ø  Tata Steel plans to raise $250-500m debt in Singapore dollars through subsidiary to repay earlier loan.

Ø  SBI to make some strategic announcement today.

Ø  Ashok Leyland and its two investment arms - Ashley Holdings Ltd and Ashley Investments Ltd - have infused around Rs 45 Crs in Ashok Leyland UAE LLC. 

Ø  Videocon Industries announced that a significant amount of natural gas has been discovered in offshore Rovumal block, Mozambique.

Ø  GMR Infrastructure is learnt to have filed qualification documents for a formal bid to develop 17.5-billion peso ($425 million) Mactan-Cebu International Airport project in the Philippines.

Ø  IL&FS has received a Letter of Intent (LOI) from IPTF, Fujairah, FZC for oil pipeline work at Port of Fujairah for an amount of Rs 71.4 Crs.

Ø  Havmor Ice Creams has tied up with another homegrown pharmaceutical major Zydus Wellness, for sourcing ingredients for its latest 'Sugar Free' range of ice creams. Also, the tie-up would allow Havmor to use the 'Sugar Free' brand owned by Zydus for its ice creams.

Key events for the day:

Ø  Board Meeting for Q4FY13 results of: HDFC Bank, M&M Financial, Indiabulls Securities, Coromandel International, AP Paper, Binani Industries.

Ø  Release of Flash Manufacturing & Service PMI data in Euro Zone.

Ø  Release of Flash Manufacturing PMI, HPI, New Home Sales data in US.

 

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First Morning Technical Call 23rd April 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5834): CNX Nifty made a higher high and a higher low yesterday and has been doing the same for the past five trading sessions. Nifty closed above 5830 suggesting that it has broken the short term resistance pegged at the psychological 5830 levels. Nifty has closed above its 50 DMA after 28 trading sessions and now looks good to target 5877 on the upside which is also near 100 DMA 5860 level.  For the day if Nifty crosses 5860 on the upside then a rally towards 5900-5920 cannot be ruled out. Failing to cross 5860 the index could witness some profit booking till 5780-5750 levels and till such time Nifty keeps making higher highs the short term tr end is likely to remain on the upside. M&MFINANCE Rs.212 is near major triangle break-out above Rs.215 stock can soon cross all time high of Rs.244.45.

SENSEX (19170): Sensex closed higher on Monday as a stunning leg of rally during late in trade, yesterday took the index above 19150 levels. Now if the index holds 19100 then a rally till 19700-19800 cannot be ruled out in the days to come as shorts will start covering their positions if the critical resistance at 19250-19280 is taken apart in tomorrow's trading session and with just two days to go for the derivatives settlement , volatility is expected.

TECHNICAL CALLS 

BUY CUMMINS INDIA Rs. 504 :  CUMMINS has been consolidating in a tight range of 480-520 for many trading sessions and now the stock has been observed to be making higher lows for the past five trading sessions which suggests that a big breakout is on the cards anytime now ,which cannot be ruled out. The stock is trading above all moving averages and looks good for a rally till 545-550 in the day s to come.

BUY BAJAJCORP Rs.238 :  BAJAJCORP has made a cup and handle formation on daily charts and now looks good for a rally towards 255-260 in the days to come. The stock is trading above all moving averages and is also making higher highs and higher lows from the past five trading sessions.

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Derivatives Strategist 23rd April 2013

Data Feeler: Nifty future witnessed gap up opening following the better global cues and then northward journey remained continue towards 5840 zone. Nifty has been witnessing sustained buying interest since last week with gain of around 340 points from 5500 zone; traders should now be little bit cautious while making fresh long positions in the Index at current levels as Risk- Reward is not favorable however stock specific move may be continued. Nifty future for the day, if it sustains above 5820 levels then rally may be continued towards 5850-5880 levels whereas sustaining below 5800 levels may see profit booking in the market towards 5750 levels. Looking at the option concentration data for April series, maximum put OI is at 5600 followed by 5700 strike prices and maximum call OI is shifted at 5900 followed by 5800 strike prices. Bank Nifty for the day it has support around 12400 levels whereas the immediate hurdle area is around 12800 levels.

 

Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty moved up from 1.15 to 1.17 levels. Historical Volatility of Nifty moved down from 19.88 to 19.69 levels but Implied Volatility moved up from 15.27 to 15.54 levels.

 

Nifty future saw decrease in OI by -2.44% with a rise in price by 0.86%. Market witnessed buying interest almost across the board especially in CD, Realty, CG, Banking, Metal, Power, PSU, FMCG, Auto and HC sector stocks whereas selling pressure was seen only in IT & Tech space. Nifty future closed at discount of 2 points in previous trading session.

 

The market turnover increased by 4% in terms of number of contracts traded vis-à-vis previous trading day whereas in terms of rupees increased by 4.57%.

 

Derivative Calls: Buy on GODREJIND & BHEL.

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News Views & Events 22nd April 2013

News:

Ø      Reliance Communications said it is no longer in talks with Bahrain Telecommunications Co (Batelco) for selling a stake in its enterprise business unit. Instead, the company said, it is in talks with a private equity consortium that included Samena Capital and hoped to complete the deal by May-end.

Ø      Two state-owned steel makers - Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) and Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd (RINL) have evinced interest to be NMDC's joint venture partner in the Rs.15,525-crore proposed steel project at Nagarnar in Chhattisgarh.

Ø      Tata Power plans to set up a 28.8 MW solar plant near Satara, Maharashtra this fiscal, as a part of its strategy to meet its clean energy capacity target.

Ø      Muthoot Fincorp is targeting to nearly double its micro-lending business to Rs.600 crore this fiscal from Rs.330 crore in FY14.

Ø      Cairn India plans to invest Rs.5,000 crore on its Rajasthan oil fields in three years to 2016 under a new integrated development plan, even as it seeks extension of block contract beyond 2020.

Ø     Work at auto-major Mahindra and Mahindra 's engine manufacturing facility at Igatpuri near Nashik, which has been stalled for the last 13 days following the "tools down" agitation by workers, is likely to resume from tomorrow with the management agreeing to reinstate two suspended employees.

Ø      Kolte-Patil has its eye set on Mumbai and Bangalore. Expansion in these new cities will help the company in margin expansion from 35 percent to atleast 40-45 percent.

Ø      United Breweries completes Scottish & Newcastle merger.

Ø      BPCL announces new gas discovery in offshore Mozambique.

Ø      HP may sell stake in Mphasis.

Ø      Sesa Goa expect to start production in Karnataka by May. Company is awaiting forest clearance from environment ministry. Hope to get environmental clearance from MoEF.

Ø      PC Jeweller plans to open around 20 new showrooms in the country by the end of the current financial year.

Key events for the day:

Ø      Board Meeting for Q4FY13 results of: Cairn India, Ultratech Cement, Mindtree, Persistent, Tamilnadu Petroproducts, Mahindra Life, Swaraj engines, Tata Sponge, Zensar Tech, Foseco, Manali Petrochemicals.

Ø      India - Parliament session resumes today.

Ø      Release of EUR Consumer Confidence.

Ø      Release of USD Existing Home Sales.

 

 

 

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First Morning Technical Call 22nd April 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5783): CNX Nifty made a stellar comeback last week towards 5800 levels and closed highest in 20 trading sessions, as the BULLISH WOLFE PATTERN, took full effect in the previous week. For the day, Nifty has to cross 5830 and sustain 5780 on the down side to carry the positivity into this week as well. Nifty successfully holding 5780 on the down side for the week can target 5900-5920 levels. On the flip  side if the index doesn't cross 5830 on the upside then chances of a steep correction could become high as a major conventional bearish head and shoulder can be formed if the resistance at around 5830-5850 is not crossed. Today parliament ses sion begins to complete the remaining budget session where expectation is very high as FM has been travelling abroad to assure more reforms to investors from abroad. Today we have results of CAIRN & ULTRACEMCO while tomorrow results of  HDFCBANK and COROMANDELINTL will be out . WIPRO has disappointed the street with its results and all 4 IT Stocks look weak enough to correct ahead of derivatives settlement as INFY alone has lost 21% in this settlement. On the other hand, RCOM has gained 55% this month alone and expect huge short covering in the stock going forward. 

SENSEX (19016): Sensex closed stunningly higher for the week as slump in prices of the yellow metal and crude pushed the investors towards the equity segment. For the day, Sensex has to sustain 18900 on the downside and target 19180-19200 on the upside which could negate the formation of the right shoulder of the bearish head and shoulder pattern on daily charts. Failing to cross the mentioned upside levels, could open up possibilities of the index drifting lower towards 18600 again.

TECHNICAL CALLS 

BUY EIDPARRY Rs. 159:  EIDPARRY has made broad unconventional Inverted Head & Shoulder on daily charts and above Rs.161, a target of Rs.180 becomes possible in the stock. EIDPARRY has corrected from high of Rs.256 to low of Rs.133 in 20weeks and now its 38.2% retracement Rs.180 & 50% 195 becomes possible soon.

BUY RALLIS Rs.126: RALLIS has made Rounding bottom formation and has given a break-out above sloping down trendline and now stock looks very good to target 145-150 levels on higher side.  RALLIS  is trading above 50DMA Rs.136 and also above its 20 DMA at 119.10 but, below 200DMA Rs.136 & 100DMA Rs.134.

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Derivatives Strategist 22nd April 2013

Data Feeler: Nifty future continued to maintain its positive momentum and it rallied another 100 points with making high near by 5800 psychological zone. Nifty on weekly basis witnessed rise in price by 3.36% along with decrease in OI by 1%. Nifty future for the day, if it sustains above 5780 levels then rally may be continued towards 5850 levels whereas sustaining below 5750 levels may see profit booking in the market towards 5720-5700 levels. Looking at the option concentration data for April series, maximum put OI is at 5600 followed by 5500 strike prices and maximum call OI is shifted at 5800 followed by 5900 strike prices. Bank Nifty for the day it has support around 12000 levels whereas sustaining above 12300 levels which is the immediate hurdle area may give further upsid e towards next hurdle around 12500 levels.

Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty moved up significantly from 1.04 to 1.15 levels. Historical Volatility of Nifty moved up from 19.10 to 19.88 levels but Implied Volatility moved down from 16.03 to 15.27 levels.

Nifty future saw decrease in OI by -0.7% with a rise in price by 1.59%. Market witnessed buying interest almost across the board especially in CD, CG, Banking, Auto, Realty, Oil & PSU, Power, Tech and FMCG sector stocks whereas marginal selling pressure was seen only in IT space. Nifty future closed at par as compared to premium of 6 points in previous trading session.

The market turnover increased by 2% in terms of number of contracts traded vis-à-vis previous trading day whereas in terms of rupees increased by 2.54%.

 

Derivatve Calls : Buy on RANBAXY & UNION BANK.

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First Morning Technical Call 18th April 2013

Market Outlook

NIFTY (5688): CNX NIFTY was range bound and closed flat after 250points rally from lower levels if Nifty fails to cross 5750 on closing basis then this rally can fizzle out, as we ahead towards extended weekend and Settlement just 4days away. For the day nifty has to hold onto the 5660 and cross 5735 to target 5780 on higher side while below 5660 then 5600 & 5570 would be levels to watch. Results season has started on mixed note with YESBANK, TCS and HCLTECH reporting good results but all positive are already built in so some profit booking possible. Crude has been correcting which is positive for Oil Marketing companies and stocks like CASTROL, SINTEX, VIPIND and lower Crude is very positive for Indian Economy with a lag impact. Global currency are very volatile normally it is observed when selling is seen across most of asset classes trader should follow strict stop loss as Month of May has normally been negative month. RELIANCE Rs.773 Below Rs.760 Caution advised as stock would break-down from Multiple support.

SENSEX (18731): Sensex closed marginally negative, after 3days sharp rally from low of 18144 to 18869 almost 725Points rally. Sensex has to cross and close above 18930 for the rally to continue till 19200 and below 18600 then correction below 18k becomes possibility as Results season and Parliament starting on 22^nd would keep market volatile. Today Sensex has to hold 18650 and cross18870 to target 18950 & 19040 on higher side, while below 18650 then 18510 & 18420 on downside becomes possible. 

TECHNICAL CALLS 

BUY CASTROL Rs. 310: CASTROL has made higher low and now higher high should take the stock above Rs.335 in near term as stock has take strong support around 200DMA Rs.301 & 100DMA Rs.307 levels. Stock all time high is Rs.339 and if that is crossed then stock can rally till 375 also on higher side.

BUY CADILA Rs.752 : CADILA has formed a good bottom formation now stock looks very good to target Rs.800 on higher side stock trades below major averages 200DMA Rs.833 & 100DMA Rs.811 which can also become target. Stock for last 45trading days has been consolidating around 720-760 levels making a strong base after correcting from Rs.975 highs.

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News Views & Events 18th April 2013

News:

Ø  Leading two-wheeler manufacturers, Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Company have hiked prices of their vehicles by up to Rs 800, mainly to offset the impact of rising freight charges.

Ø  Ranbaxy Laboratories and its Japanese parent Daiichi Sankyo announced synergies in Brazil to expand their business in the Latin American nation.

Ø  Tata Teleservices said it will surrender telecom spectrum beyond 2.5 mega-hertz in all circles barring Delhi and Mumbai in "protest" against government move to charge one-time fee for airwaves beyond this threshold.

Ø  IL&FS Engineering and Construction said that it has received letter of intent (LoI) for construction of a Rs.77.5 Crs commercial complex in Gurgaon from Unitech Ltd.

Ø  The stake sale deal of Jet Airways and Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways could be finalised in a month.

Ø  GMR airports to go public, plans to raise Rs 2000 Crs, to facilitate PE exit.

Ø  Tata Power and Reliance Infrastructure renewed their verbal duel even as a case on the levy of cross-subsidy surcharge on Mumbai suburban consumers is yet to be heard in the Supreme Court.

Ø  The Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) granted relief to the board of directors of Zenith Infotech from furnishing bank guarantees worth $33.93 million (around Rs 184 Crs) till the next hearing, slated for May 7.

Ø  DCHL is in the process of demerging its printing and publication, retail and sporting activities into a separate entity called "Land Interactive Media" registered in Delhi.

Ø  Cabinet & CCEA to meet today, to consider HMT revival plan; proposal to infuse Rs.1083 Crs into HMT.

Ø  The government is likely to announce a host of incentives for sectors like engineering and textiles to boost shipments amid global demand slowdown. Commerce and Industry Minister may extend interest subsidy scheme and provide incentives for incremental exports and SEZs.

Ø  Puravankara Projects is wooing shareholders with a handsome 70% dividend ahead of its share sale through an institutional placement programme (IPP) next month.

Key events for the day:

Ø  Board Meeting for Q4FY13 results of: CRISIL, Essar Ports, IndusInd Bank, MRF, VST Industries, Wendt India.

Ø  Release of Retail Sales in UK.

Ø  Release of Unemployment Claims in US.

 

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Derivatives Strategist 18th April 2013

Data Feeler: Nifty future started the day on a positive note following the better global cues and rallied towards 5730 area but could not able to hold as profit booking emerged at higher levels after strong recovery in last two trading sessions. Nifty future for the day, if it sustains above 5720 levels then only rally may continue towards 5750 -5780 levels whereas sustaining below 5680 levels may see profit booking in the market towards 5650-5620 levels. Looking at the option concentration data for April series, maximum put OI is shifted at 5600 followed by 5500 strike prices with aggressive fresh put addition seen at 5600 put and maximum call OI is shifted at 5700 followed by 5900 strike prices. Bank Nifty for the day it has sup port around 1180 levels whereas sustaining above 12000 levels may give further upside towards next hurdle around 12350 levels.

 

Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty moved up from 1.02 to 1.04 levels. Historical Volatility of Nifty moved down from 19.69 to 19.10 levels and Implied Volatility also moved down from 17.24 to 16.03 levels.

 

Nifty future saw decrease in OI by -2.35% with a marginal fall in price. Market witnessed buying interest especially in Metal, FMCG, Auto, HC, Banking, Realty and CD sector stocks whereas marginal selling pressure was seen in Oil & Gas, IT and Tech space. Nifty future closed at premium of 6 points as compared to premium of 7 points in previous trading session.

 

The market turnover increased by 1.6% in terms of number of contracts traded vis-à-vis previous trading day whereas in terms of rupees increased by 3.6%.

 

Derivative Calls: Buy on CIPLA & SAIL.

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First Morning Technical Call 17th April 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5689): CNX NIFTY has closed higher by more than 2 % and clocked its highest gain in terms of percentage  in  year 2013 Nifty has closed above its 20 DMA 5641 after 20 trading sessions and above its 200 DMA 5656 after 8 trading sessions while 50DMA 5779 & 100DMA 5856 could resist going forward. Breaking out of the falling trend line and the BULLISH WOLFE PATTERN the index gained momentum and rose sharply. For the day Nifty has to hold onto the 5630-5645 and cross 5720 to target 5780 on higher side while below 5640 then in coming days selling pressure would start. Rupee has started to strengthen along with Euro while Dollar weakens positive for Importers while Negative for exporter, Today HCLTECH, YESBANK & TCS announce result. RELIANCE Rs.804 came out with results above market expectations but sales disappointed and now if the stock holds Rs.780,which is very important and also crossing Rs.825 , then it will be a triangle break-out.  The government on Tuesday cut the tariff value of gold and silver to $499 per 10 grams and $890 per kg, respectively, taking into account weak global prices of the precious metals.

SENSEX (18745): Sensex closed higher by 387 points, on a day which was positive for most of the trading session, after making low of 18144, which was the lowest in 144 trading days. Today Sensex has to hold 18550 on the down side and cross 18920 and 18980 on the upside to add to the positive momentum. The Index has good support around 18430 -18300 levels. SENSEX is trading above its 200DMA 18657 and the 20DMA 18678 levels which is a big positive for the index.

TECHNICAL CALLS 

BUY IDFC Rs. 154 :  IDFC was the top  gainer  amongst the Nifty index stocks during yesterday's trade. IDFC has been trading above its 20 DMA Rs.143 levels for the second day in succession which suggests strength and closed above 200DMA Rs.153. IDFC has been making higher highs and higher lows from the past few trading sessions which suggests that buying at lower levels and short covering to boost.

BUY GRASIM INDS Rs.2832 : GRASIM INDUSTRIES has retraced exactly 61.8% of its entire move from 2210 to 3510 at around 2700 levels from where it has began its recent rally. The stock is making higher highs and higher lows on daily chats and is also showing positive momentum. The stock is trading above its 20 DMA levels at 2809 levels. GRASIM looks good for an upside rally of 4-5 % in the next few trading sessions.

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INFOSYS OPTION STRATEGY - LONG BUTTERFLY

INFY : LONG BUTTERFLY

 

SELL INFY 2800 PUT @ 104 & SELL 2900 CALL @ 96

BUY  INFY 2600 PUT @ 42   & BUY 3100 CALL  @ 29

 

NET INFLOW : 129 POINTS

MAX RISK : 71 POINTS

MAX REWARD : 129 POINTS

LBEP : 2670

UBEP : 3029

 

(PROFIT - IF INFY REMAINS IN BETWEEN 2670 TO 3029 LEVELS)

 

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News Views & Events 11th April 2013

News:

Ø  Mahindra & Mahindra said that the company experienced stoppage of work at its engine making plant in Igatpuri, Maharashtra.

Ø  Tata Steel, India's biggest producer is considering selling some of its UK assets as a weakening economy erodes demand leaving factories underutilized.

Ø  BHEL has proposed to set up a backward integrated project for its solar photovoltaic panel business. The company has planned to set up an integrated manufacturing facility for ingots to wafers, cells and panels using crystalline photovoltaic technology.

Ø  Telecom, Defence to Lead FDI Drive. Government could also allow foreign companies to hold at least 49% equity in any sector.

Ø  KFA lenders to initiate process to liquidate Mallya's assets next week.

Ø  Petronet LNG Ltd, India's biggest importer of liquefied natural gas, will take 26 per cent stake in a shipping venture planned to haul gas to its new terminal at Kochi in Kerala.

Ø  Eveready Industries India is mulling to form a joint venture with an interested party to develop its Hyderabad and Noida properties, which the company has put on the block for quite sometime now.

Ø  Bajaj Auto said it hopes to sell around 2,000 units of the premium sports bike from the Kawasaki Ninja platform launched yesterday, which is priced at Rs.3.5 lakh.

Ø  Etihad Airways' purchase of a stake in Jet Airways could be delayed until at least August as the Abu Dhabi carrier seeks assurances following setbacks for several Gulf investors in India.

Ø  Siemens has signed a contract worth Rs.104.4 crore with Bangladesh Steels Re-Rolling Mills Limited (BSRM), to build a gas-insulated switchgear (GIS) substation.

Ø  Cairn India produced 3.6% less crude oil than the stated target of 175,000 barrels per day from its prolific Rajasthan block in the fourth quarter ended March 31.

Ø  IOC's Lanka plans on the table despite Colombo's takeover threat. Colombo is yet to inform Lanka IOC that it would partially take back unused World War II time strategic oil storage depot in Trincomalee.

Ø  Tata Motor's, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) posted a 16 per cent rise in global sales at 53,772 vehicles in March, following an array of new launches. The British car-maker's sales for the month in India rose 28 per cent, compared with the same period a year ago.

Ø  Suzlon Group said its subsidiary, REpower Systems, has reached one gigawatt (GW) installed capacity across UK wind farms.

Key events for the day:

Ø  Release of EUR French & German CPI m/m.

Ø  Release of USD Unemployment Claims & 30-y Bond Auction.

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First Morning Technical Call 11th April 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK

NIFTY (5559): CNX NIFTY made lower low 5477 but recovered smartly to close positive, in the past couple of trading sessions volatility is high with whiplashes of almost 100 odd points during the day. Nifty was highly oversold so a relief rally was on cards as we are in very strong support zone of 5440-5470 and if this rally holds 5650-5720 could be possible before any fresh correction. Nifty for the day has to hold 5520 and cross 5575 to target 5620 & 5665 on higher side while below 5520 then 5480 & 5440 are good support level. Tomorrow we have IIP data & INFY results would be announced with INFY results to be announced before markets open, INFY was at 2322 before result and post results INFY rallied around 29% to make a high of 3009, using options strategies smartly would reduce risk. Our economist expects IIP to contract by 1.8% in Feb'13 due to a drag from electricity and mining production and RBI to cut the repo rate by 25bps on 3 May'13 and continue its liquidity enhancing measures.

SENSEX (18414): Sensex closed higher on a day which was very volatile. Sensex has to hold 18200 on the downside in order to make any up move towards 18600-18650 in the days to come. Sensex has closed positive but has closed below its 200 DMA too. On the other hand, Sensex falling below 18200 can bring in a lot of selling pressure as multiple supports could break if the index doesn't stabilize from current levels.

 TECHNICAL CALLS 

BUY CORPORATION BANK Rs. 390: CORPBANK has corrected from high of Rs.495 to low of Rs.378 in 57trading days and now looks for a good rally till Rs.413 which is 200DMA or Rs.425 which is 100DMA as good base formation is seen.

BUY DIVISLAB LAB Rs.1030:  DIVISLAB after making panic low of Rs.973 has recovered to close around 50DMA Rs.1030 and stock looks very good to target Rs.1100. Stock has corrected from 1234 to 973 and made a strong base to rally 5-6% minimum from current level.

Note : For any query pl. mail to - sales@rathi.com

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