CURRENCIES Medium Term Call

Fundamental Scenario

• Dollar has fallen by 3.12% against Rupee in past 4 trading sessions

from 48.04 on 1st Sept to 46.54 on 7th Sept.

• This is the sharpest weekly rise in rupee post the election rally

• Although international factors like weakening of dollar index and

pressure on China to re-value the yuan were the major drivers of this

rally in currency pair, we feel this rally has “over-reacted” and one can

expect some pull back in the Pair.

• A stronger Rupee will not be in favor of Indian exporters which will

increase the total trade deficit, one can expect RBI intervention in the

currency pair.

• We expect USDINR to re-touch the levels of 48.20 in coming 1-2

weeks time. Hence we hereby recommend to Long USDINR at CMP

(46.80)with a stop loss of 46.00 for a target of 48.20

USDINR

Exchange : NSE

Month : October

Risk : Medium

Call : Buy at CMP

(46.80) with a stop

loss of 46.00

Current Price: 46.80

Target Price: 48.20

Return: 1400

Risk: 800

Recent Trend: Down

Volume: Rising

Open Interest

Short covering