Market Outlook:
Nifty View-
S&P CNX Nifty has breached the supply zone of 5170 and closed above 5200 and with very positive global markets 3-4% in Indian markets in opening trade is possible as Euro Zone has led to global rally in stock and commodities. Today Nifty Gap-up would become positive island reversal and target of 5500-5700 could become possible in near term if today's Gap-up sustain. Nifty Gapped-down (5323-5229) on 5/August/2011 and closing this Gap will lead to heavy short covering and fresh buying. Normally Diwali has been turning point for Indian market in 2010 Diwali day market made all time high on closing basis while in 2008 Diwali day Market made low of 6years. Nifty 100DMA 5241 & 200DMA 5411 are important levels to be crossed. RBI has hiked policy rate by 25basis points, deregulated saving rate with immediate effect and scaled down growth forecast.
Sensex- Sensex has made a high of 17350 Diwali day and above 17357 Sensex would make high in 55trading days, and target of 18300 become near term target which is trend line resistance made from high of November 2010. Few calculation suggest the correction in 2011 is likely over and fresh major correction would start only after March/April 2012, if no major global events negates the up-move. Outperformance would come from beaten down good mid-cap stocks like SINTEX, VOLTAS, BEML, JINDALSAW, HDIL, CROMPTONGREAVES, IDBI, CUMMINS, and IFCI.
Technical Calls:
INDIANHOTEL-Rs.69 Stock has been correcting from high of Rs.118 made in May/2010 made a low of Rs.66 in August/2011 after which in the last 45trading day's stock has consolidated well. Now stock moving above Rs.70.5 is a break-out above falling trend-line resistance, above which Rs.76-78 becomes target. Stock is a beneficiary of weak rupee.
JPASSOCIATE-72 Stock has made a triangle formation, if the stock can hold above Rs.70 then Rs.80-83 becomes near term target. Stock has closed above 100DMA Rs.71.9 and trades above 50DMA Rs.68 for long time, once 200DMA Rs.79.9 is breached then stock becomes very bullish. Weekly and monthly charts are suggesting stock can soon target Rs.100 above levels.
Technical View: INDUSINDBANK-277, SAVINGBANK deregulation Impact- RBI in its policy meet has with immediate effect deregulated saving rate which is very positive for Banks with low CASA namely YESBANK, INDUSINDBANK, IDBI and LASKMIVILASBANK, while move can be negative for SBIN, AXISBANK, ICICIBANK and HDFCBANK which has high CASA. INDUSINDBANK has made high 0f 58trading days and trades near all time high of Rs.309 and chances of 325 in near term looks very possible.
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