Nifty (5642): CNX Nifty closed positive after 7 trading days and in last 12 days only 2 days we have seen positive close with Nifty breaching 200DMA 5624 by making a low of 5612 before closing positive. Today is Derivative settlement, Last day of the Month, Quarterly close and last day of financial year which can keep market most volatile, So Nifty holding 5600 is important crossing 5680 is crucial for a rally till 5720 & 5775 while below 5600 correction may continue till 5548 & 5480. Nifty has made low of 85 trading days, Nifty YTD date is down 4.4% while in Nifty stocks HCLTECH+25%, TCS+23%, INFY+23 %, ONGC+13, SUNPHARMA +11% are Top 5 gainers while Top 5 Losers are RELINFRA-37%, JPASSOCIATE-33%, HINDALCO-32%, TATASTEEL-28%, BANKBARODA-23%. Buying YTD is seen in IT, Pharma, FMCG and Oil Companies Surprise was Oil Companies post Decontrol of Diesel and Partial decontrol in LPG prices while selling in Realty, Infra, Metal, Auto, PSUBANK, PSU Stocks. Quality Mid-Cap stocks are showing signs of recovery BAYERCORP, PFIZER, CUMMINS, GSPL, KARURVYSYABANK, M&MFIN, MINDTREE, NATCOPHARMA and SPECIALITY can be accumulated for long term.
SENSEX (18705) : Sensex has corrected for straight 8 days and now Gap-up(18590-18612) are broken on a closing basis only then some selling pressure could intensify towards,18300-18190 levels. Sensex is still above its 200 DMA 18546. Any rally above 18850 in the index can trigger a fresh round of short covering as the index seems to have taken a temporary support near 200 DMA levels and is showing first signs of a pullback after a steep correction. Therefore for the day the levels for the Sensex, moving above 18790 could target 18880-18940 on the upside while on the downside, the index could continue its downtrend if the 200 DMa 18546 is broken o n a closing basis.
TECHNICAL CALLS
BUY RANBAXY Rs.444: The stock has rallied 17% in this month so far, a stunning recovery from lower levels and has now made an unconventional inverted head and shoulder bullish pattern. Ranbaxy has seen a huge built up of long positions as per the derivatives data which indicates that a short covering move of at least 4-5% can be witnessed in the stock. The stock is trading above its 20 DMA Rs.415 & 50DMA Rs.431 levels which forms good support for the stock. The stock looks good for an upside target of 480 in the days to come.
SELL RELIANCE CAPITAL Rs.301 : The stock is down by a staggering 16.52 % during the month of March,2013 and Year till date 37% which suggests huge short built up of positions in the stock according to the derivatives data.. The stock has had huge volumes during the entire sell off from 380 odd levels, which is a big negative for the stock. The stock could see more selling pressure during expiry as traders trapped on the long side would eventually have to cut their positions. The stock looks weak enough to target at least 270 -275 on the downside as it is trading below all major moving averages.
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