Monday, May 13, 2013

Weekly Derivatives Strategist 13th May 2013



Weekly Data Feeler

 

Ø  Open Interest of Nifty future increased by 22.40% with a rise in price by 2.69% from the previous week, indicating built up of long position as market continued its positive momentum towards 6100 levels.

Ø  Bank Nifty also witnessed built up of long position as OI increased by 16.19% with the rise in price by 3.14% from the previous week.

Ø  Put Call Ratio based on Open Interest of Nifty moved up from 1.12 to 1.23 levels with the support of Put writing at all lower strikes. Now if Put Call Ratio sustains above 1.20 levels then momentum may continue in the market otherwise a consolidation or profit booking dip may be seen in coming sessions.

Ø  HV (Historical Volatility) of Nifty moved down from 18.53 to 17.72 levels.

Ø  Implied Volatility of Nifty moved up from 14.74 to 16.44 levels.

 

On the Option front, maximum Put OI is at 5800 followed by 5700 strike, whereas maximum Call OI is at 6200 followed 6100 strike. Fresh Put writing seen at 6000 strike which indicates that participants are expecting market to hold above 6000 levels. Fresh Call writing at 6200 strike may put pressure on the market on rise.

 

Nifty future moved well by more than 11% from 5480 to 6130 levels with the support of rising Put Call Ratio and also making higher high top - higher bottoms from last five consecutive weeks. Market has moved well and a small profit booking dip cannot be ruled out, but overall trend is positive and till it doesn't breach below 6080 levels positive momentum is likely to continue in the market.

 

Now if Nifty future sustains above 6080 levels then momentum may continue towards 6200 levels, longs can trail their position with the stop loss of 6080 levels. On downside if it sustains below 6080 levels then a profit booking dip may be seen towards 6020-5980 levels. Bank Nifty future is finding hurdle at around 12750 levels, if it sustains 12750 then it may head towards 13000-13300 levels. Bank Index has strong support at around 12500 levels.


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